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Hurdle models of repayment behaviour in personal loan contracts

Author

Listed:
  • José M. R. Murteira

    (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra)

  • Mário A. G. Augusto

    (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

This paper proposes a hurdle model of repayment behaviour in loans with fixed instalments. Using information on previous and current contracts, the approach yields a model of customer behaviour, useful, for example, in assessing the impact of determinants of default, a natural concern for credit and behavioural scoring. Under plausible assumptions, a debtor in each period faces a number of missed payments, which depends on his previous repayment decisions; meanwhile, as most debtors are expected to meet financial obligations, the number of missed payments is bound to display excess zeros, with reference to a single-part law. Each sequence of missed payments is modelled by using the binomial thinning, a conceptual tool that allows for dependence between integers by defining the support of consecutive counts. Under suitable assumptions on heterogeneity, the model can be produced under a random effects approach, leading to a two-part panel data model, estimable by quasi-maximum likelihood. The proposed approach is illustrated using a panel data set on personal loans granted by a Portuguese bank.

Suggested Citation

  • José M. R. Murteira & Mário A. G. Augusto, 2017. "Hurdle models of repayment behaviour in personal loan contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 641-667, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1140-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1140-2
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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