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Compound Poisson INAR(1) processes: Stochastic properties and testing for overdispersion


  • Schweer, Sebastian
  • Weiß, Christian H.


The compound Poisson INAR(1) model for time series of overdispersed counts is considered. For such CPINAR(1) processes, explicit results are derived for joint moments, for the k-step-ahead distribution as well as for the stationary distribution. It is shown that a CPINAR(1) process is strongly mixing with exponentially decreasing weights. This result is utilized to design a test for overdispersion in INAR(1) processes and to derive its asymptotic power function. An application of our results to a real-data example and a study of the finite-sample performance of the test are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Schweer, Sebastian & Weiß, Christian H., 2014. "Compound Poisson INAR(1) processes: Stochastic properties and testing for overdispersion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 267-284.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:77:y:2014:i:c:p:267-284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2014.03.005

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
    2. Christian Weiß, 2009. "Modelling time series of counts with overdispersion," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(4), pages 507-519, November.
    3. Freeland, R. K. & McCabe, B. P. M., 2004. "Forecasting discrete valued low count time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 427-434.
    4. Robert Jung & Gerd Ronning & A. Tremayne, 2005. "Estimation in conditional first order autoregression with discrete support," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 195-224, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:stpapr:v:58:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00362-015-0704-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Borges, Patrick & Molinares, Fabio Fajardo & Bourguignon, Marcelo, 2016. "A geometric time series model with inflated-parameter Bernoulli counting series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 264-272.
    3. repec:bla:scjsta:v:44:y:2017:i:4:p:843-865 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Raju Maiti & Atanu Biswas & Samarjit Das, 2016. "Coherent forecasting for count time series using Box–Jenkins's AR(p) model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(2), pages 123-145, May.
    5. repec:spr:testjl:v:26:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11749-017-0536-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marcelo Bourguignon, 2016. "Poisson–geometric INAR(1) process for modeling count time series with overdispersion," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 70(3), pages 176-192, August.
    7. Weiß, Christian H. & Schweer, Sebastian, 2016. "Bias corrections for moment estimators in Poisson INAR(1) and INARCH(1) processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 124-130.
    8. Bisaglia, Luisa & Canale, Antonio, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric forecasting for INAR models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 70-78.
    9. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1140-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sebastian Schweer, 2016. "A Goodness-of-Fit Test for Integer-Valued Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 77-98, January.
    11. Wagner Barreto-Souza, 2015. "Zero-Modified Geometric INAR(1) Process for Modelling Count Time Series with Deflation or Inflation of Zeros," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 839-852, November.
    12. Sebastian Schweer & Christian H. Weiß, 2016. "Testing for Poisson arrivals in INAR(1) processes," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(3), pages 503-524, September.
    13. Christian H. Weiß & Sebastian Schweer, 2015. "Detecting overdispersion in INARCH(1) processes," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 69(3), pages 281-297, August.


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