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Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data

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  • Santos Silva, J.M.C.
  • Murteira, J.M.R.

Abstract

This paper develops a count data model for credit scoring which allows the estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it permits a more efficient use of the data, including that for the most recent clients. Moreover, because the probability of default is specified as a function of the age of the contract, the model provides some information on the timing of the defaults. The model is based on the beta-binomial distribution, which is found to be particularly adequate for this purpose. A well-known dataset on personal loans is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Murteira, J.M.R., 2009. "Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 457-465, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:457-465
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    1. Dionne, Georges & Artis, Manuel & Guillen, Montserrat, 1996. "Count data models for a credit scoring system," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 303-325, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Portugal & José Varejão, 2022. "Why do firms use fixed-term contracts?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(3), pages 401-421, September.
    2. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana & Wei, Kehai, 2014. "Estimating the extensive margin of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-75.
    3. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Two-Part Models for Fractional Responses Defined as Ratios of Integers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-22, September.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:721 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. José M. R. Murteira & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho, 2016. "Regression Analysis of Multivariate Fractional Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 515-552, April.
    6. Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
    7. Enrico De Giorgi, 2002. "An Intensity Based Non-Parametric Default Model for Residential Mortgage Portfolios," Risk and Insurance 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Sep 2002.
    8. José M. R. Murteira & Mário A. G. Augusto, 2017. "Hurdle models of repayment behaviour in personal loan contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 641-667, September.

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