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Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data

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  • J. M. R. Murteira

    (Universidade de Coimbra)

  • Joao M. C. Santos Silva

    (Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa)

Abstract

This paper develops a count data model for credit scoring which allows the estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data. The model is based on the beta-binomial distribution, which is found to be particularly adequate to describe this sort of data. A well known data set on personal loans granted by a Spanish bank is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • J. M. R. Murteira & Joao M. C. Santos Silva, 2000. "Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1121, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1121
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    Cited by:

    1. Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
    2. Pedro Portugal & José Varejão, 2022. "Why do firms use fixed-term contracts?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(3), pages 401-421, September.
    3. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana & Wei, Kehai, 2014. "Estimating the extensive margin of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-75.
    4. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Two-Part Models for Fractional Responses Defined as Ratios of Integers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Enrico De Giorgi, 2002. "An Intensity Based Non-Parametric Default Model for Residential Mortgage Portfolios," Risk and Insurance 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Sep 2002.
    6. repec:esx:essedp:721 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. José M. R. Murteira & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho, 2016. "Regression Analysis of Multivariate Fractional Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 515-552, April.
    8. José M. R. Murteira & Mário A. G. Augusto, 2017. "Hurdle models of repayment behaviour in personal loan contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 641-667, September.

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