Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data
This paper develops a count data model for credit scoring which allows the estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data. The model is based on the beta-binomial distribution, which is found to be particularly adequate to describe this sort of data. A well known data set on personal loans granted by a Spanish bank is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis, 1975.
"A Beta-Logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women,"
NBER Working Papers
0112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heckman, James J & Willis, Robert J, 1977. "A Beta-logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 27-58, February.
- Wooldridge, J.M., 1989.
"Some Aleternative To The Box-Cox Regression Model,"
534, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Guillen, Montserrat & Manuel Artis, 1994.
"Count Data Models For A Credit Scoring System,"
021, Risk and Insurance Archive.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998.
"Duration of Consumer Loans and Bank Lending Policy: Dormancy Versus Default Risk,"
Working Paper Series
70, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Duration of consumer loans and bank lending policy: dormancy versus default risk," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 280, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Roszbach, Kasper, 1998.
"Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
261, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
- Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series 154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
- D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1999. "Asymptotic Properties of Weighted M-Estimators for Variable Probability Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1385-1406, November.
- Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 1996. "Do economic incentives affect work absence? Empirical evidence using Swedish micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-218, February.
- Thomas, Lyn C., 2000. "A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-172.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.