IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sur/surrec/0124.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

MisspecifiÂ…ed Exponential Regressions: Estimation, Interpretation, and Average Marginal Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Joao M.C. Santos Silva

    (University of Surrey)

  • Rainer Winkelmann

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract

Exponential regressions are frequently used when outcomes are non-negative. They are attractive because they are easy to interpret and to estimate, using pseudo maximum likelihood (PML). However, the validity of these methods depends on the correct specification of the conditional expectation, and little is known regarding their properties when the conditional expectation is misspecified. We show that PML estimators of misspecified exponential models provide optimal approximations to the conditional expectation, in a weighted mean squared error sense, and we give conditions under which their Poisson PML estimator identifies average marginal effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao M.C. Santos Silva & Rainer Winkelmann, 2024. "MisspecifiÂ…ed Exponential Regressions: Estimation, Interpretation, and Average Marginal Effects," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0124, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2024/DP01-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruud, Paul A., 1986. "Consistent estimation of limited dependent variable models despite misspecification of distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 157-187, June.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Powell, James L, 1986. "Symmetrically Trimmed Least Squares Estimation for Tobit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1435-1460, November.
    4. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    5. Peng, Limin, 2012. "Self-consistent estimation of censored quantile regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 368-379.
    6. Rainer Winkelmann, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Count Data," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-78389-3, July.
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    8. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    9. Heckman, James J & Willis, Robert J, 1977. "A Beta-logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 27-58, February.
    10. Akanksha Negi & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2021. "Revisiting regression adjustment in experiments with heterogeneous treatment effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 504-534, April.
    11. Alexander Kukush & Hans Schneeweis & Roland Wolf, 2004. "Three estimators for the poisson regression model with measurement errors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 351-368, July.
    12. Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
    13. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1999. "Asymptotic Properties of Weighted M-Estimators for Variable Probability Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1385-1406, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Limwattananon, Supon & Neelsen, Sven & O'Donnell, Owen & Prakongsai, Phusit & Tangcharoensathien, Viroj & van Doorslaer, Eddy & Vongmongkol, Vuthiphan, 2015. "Universal coverage with supply-side reform: The impact on medical expenditure risk and utilization in Thailand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-94.
    2. Langevin, R.;, 2024. "Consistent Estimation of Finite Mixtures: An Application to Latent Group Panel Structures," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 24/16, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Giuliani, Elisa & Martinelli, Arianna & Rabellotti, Roberta, 2016. "Is Co-Invention Expediting Technological Catch Up? A Study of Collaboration between Emerging Country Firms and EU Inventors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 192-205.
    4. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Doherr, Thorsten & Hussinger, Katrin & Schliessler, Paula & Toole, Andrew A., 2016. "Knowledge Creates Markets: The influence of entrepreneurial support and patent rights on academic entrepreneurship," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 131-146.
    5. Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Stefan Boes & Michael Gerfin, 2016. "Does Full Insurance Increase the Demand for Health Care?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(11), pages 1483-1496, November.
    7. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A. & Ruud, Paul A., 1986. "Classical estimation methods for LDV models using simulation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 40, pages 2383-2441, Elsevier.
    8. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "On the existence of the maximum likelihood estimates in Poisson regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 310-312, May.
    9. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2017. "Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Lie Groups of Linear Transformations," MPRA Paper 79623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2011. "poisson: Some convergence issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 215-225, June.
    11. Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2014. "Applying the GLM Variance Assumption to Overcome the Scale-Dependence of the Negative Binomial QGPML Estimator," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 772-784, October.
    12. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2020. "On the consistency of the logistic quasi-MLE under conditional symmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Kaiser, Ulrich & Mendez, Susan J. & Rønde, Thomas & Ullrich, Hannes, 2014. "Regulation of pharmaceutical prices: Evidence from a reference price reform in Denmark," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-187.
    14. Cuicui Lu & Weining Wang & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2018. "Using generalized estimating equations to estimate nonlinear models with spatial data," Papers 1810.05855, arXiv.org.
    15. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Darwin Cortes, 2015. "Behavioral differences in violence: The case of intra-group differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0073, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. Yujin Jeong & Jordan I. Siegel, 2018. "Threat of falling high status and corporate bribery: Evidence from the revealed accounting records of two South Korean presidents," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 1083-1111, April.
    17. Bartolucci, Francesco & Belotti, Federico & Peracchi, Franco, 2015. "Testing for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in generalized linear models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 111-123.
    18. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    19. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2009. "How remote is the offshoring threat?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 429-444, May.
    20. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 31-66.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ioannis Lazopoulos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.