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Scale-dependence of the Negative Binomial Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator

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  • Clément Bosquet

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Hervé Boulhol

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OCDE - Département des affaires économiques)

Abstract

Following Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), various studies have used the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood to estimate gravity specifications of trade flows and non-count data models more generally. Some papers also report results based on the Negative Binomial estimator, which is more general and encompasses the Poisson assumption as a special case. This note shows that the Negative Binomial estimator is inappropriate when applied to a continuous dependent variable which unit choice is arbitrary, because estimates artificially depend on that choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2010. "Scale-dependence of the Negative Binomial Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00544129, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00544129
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00544129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony Briant & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2014. "Product Complexity, Quality of Institutions and the Protrade Effect of Immigrants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 63-85, January.
    2. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    3. Anthony Briant & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2009. "Product Complexity, Quality Of Institutions And The Pro-Trade Effect Of Immigrants," Working Papers halshs-00382510, HAL.
    4. Anthony Briant & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2009. "Product complexity, quality of institutions and the pro-trade effect of immigrants," Working Papers halshs-00566772, HAL.
    5. Joakim Westerlund & Fredrik Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 641-649.
    6. Lionel Fontagne & Soledad Zignago, 2007. "A Re-evaluation of the Impact of Regional Agreements on Trade Patterns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 109, pages 31-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harry Huizinga & Johannes Voget & Wolf Wagner, 2014. "International Taxation and Cross-Border Banking," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 94-125, May.
    2. Rosa Bernardini Papalia & Silvia Bertarelli, 2015. "Trade Costs in Bilateral Trade Flows: Heterogeneity and Zeroes in Structural Gravity Models," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1744-1762, November.
    3. Peter Egger & Kevin Staub, 2016. "GLM estimation of trade gravity models with fixed effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 137-175, February.
    4. Elizaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," FIW Working Paper series 095, FIW.
    5. Schaak, Henning, 2015. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on International Agricultural Trade: A Gravity Application on the Dairy Product Trade and the ASEAN-China-FTA," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 211619, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    6. Cooke, Edgar F A, 2011. "The impact of trade preferences on exports of developing countries: the case of the AGOA and CBI preferences of the USA," MPRA Paper 31439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    8. Martijn J. Burger & Mark J. P. M. Thissen & Frank G. van Oort & Dario Diodato, 2014. "The Magnitude and Distance Decay of Trade in Goods and Services: New Evidence for European Countries," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 231-259, September.
    9. Bergh, Andreas & Mirkina, Irina & Nilsson, Therese, 2015. "Pushed by Poverty or by Institutions? Determinants of Global Migration Flows," Working Paper Series 1077, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Prehn, Soren & Brümmer, Bernhard & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Structural Gravity Estimation & Agriculture," 2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012, San Diego, California 142765, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. repec:afe:journl:v:19:y:2017:i:1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Raphaël Chiappini & Yves Jégourel, 2014. "Futures Market Volatility, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Cereals Exports: Empirical Evidence from France," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-34, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    13. Magerman, Glenn & Studnicka, Zuzanna & Van Hove, Jan, 2016. "Distance and border effects in international trade: A comparison of estimation methods," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-31.
    14. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    15. Damiaan Persyn & Wouter Torfs, 2013. "A gravity equation for commuting - with an application to estimating regional and language border effects in Belgium," ERSA conference papers ersa13p599, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Richard Sellner, 2017. "Non-discriminatory Trade Policies in Structural Gravity Models Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," FIW Working Paper series 178, FIW.
    17. Vincent Bouvatier & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2017. "Banks Defy Gravity in Tax Havens," Working Papers 2017-16, CEPII research center.
    18. Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2015. "What is really puzzling about the “distance puzzle”," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 1-21, February.
    19. Fiankor, Dela-Dem Doe & Ehrich, Malte & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "EU-African Regional Trade Agreements as a Development Tool to Reduce EU Border Rejections," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 244352, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    20. Julien Gooris & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2015. "Which import restrictions matter for trade in services ?," Working Papers 2015-33, CEPII research center.
    21. Shingal, Anirudh, 2013. ""New" econometric evidence for the Baldwin-Richardson (1972)/Miyagiwa (1991) theoretical predictions in government procurement," MPRA Paper 49138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Marie Poprawe, 2015. "On the relationship between corruption and migration: empirical evidence from a gravity model of migration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 337-354, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pseudo-maximum likelihood methods; negative binomial estimator; Poisson regression; gamma PML.; Méthodes du pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance; estimateur avec loi binomiale négative; régression de Poisson; pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance avec loi gamma.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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