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What is really puzzling about the "distance puzzle"

Author

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  • Clément Bosquet

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

  • Hervé Boulhol

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract

This paper studies the change in the distance elasticity of trade between 1948 and 2006. The elasticity sharply increased, when gravity equations are estimated by ordinary least squares in log form (log-OLS), while it was broadly stable or slightly increasing, depending on the specification, based on Poisson pseudo-maximal likehood (PPML) in levels, a standard estimator. We show that such a divergence is due to the increased heterogeneity of trade flows. However, gamma pseudo-maximal likehood, which should be consistent under the assumptions that make PPML so appealing, generate estimates that are significantly different from PPML and actually closer to log-OLS. We provide tentative solutions to this puzzle. Copyright Kiel Institute 2015
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2015. "What is really puzzling about the "distance puzzle"," Post-Print hal-02980021, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02980021
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    1. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    2. Buch, Claudia M. & Kleinert, Jorn & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "The distance puzzle: on the interpretation of the distance coefficient in gravity equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 293-298, June.
    3. Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2014. "Applying the GLM Variance Assumption to Overcome the Scale-Dependence of the Negative Binomial QGPML Estimator," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 772-784, October.
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    10. David T Coe & Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T Tamirisa, 2007. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Evidence of the Declining Importance of Distance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 34-58, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sapa, Agnieszka & Kryszak, Łukasz, 2021. "Processed Food Trade Of European Union Countries – The Gravity Approach," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2021(2).
    2. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2021. "New nonlinear estimators of the gravity equation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 192-202.
    3. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1196-1231, November.
    5. Lin, Faqin, 2013. "Are distance effects really a puzzle?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 684-689.
    6. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2016. "The distance effects on the intensive and extensive margins of trade over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 253-278, March.
    8. Marlies Hanna Schütz & Nicole Palan, 2016. "Restructuring of the international clothing and textile trade network: the role of Italy and Portugal," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, December.
    9. Yotov, Yoto V., 2012. "A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/443fbihfmj8h58a4ceedn30ogb is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sucharita Ghosh & Donald Lien & Steven Yamarik, 2017. "Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross-Border Flows in and out of China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 299-323, September.
    12. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effect of culture on trade over time: New evidence from the GLOBE data set," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 18-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    13. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2019. "New Approach to Estimating Gravity Models with Heteroscedasticity and Zero Trade Values," MPRA Paper 93426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    15. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Back to the Future: International Trade Costs and the Two Globalizations," Vniversitas Económica 15130, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Samuel Standaert & Stijn Ronsse & Benjamin Vandermarliere, 2014. "Historical trade integration: Globalization and the distance puzzle in the long 20th century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/897, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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