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On Model Aggregation and Forecast Combination

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Abstract

Policy makers express their views and decisions via the lens of a particular model or theory. But since any model is a highly stylized representation of the unknowable object of interest, all these models are inherently misspecified, and the resulting ambiguity injects uncertainty in the decision-making process. We argue that entropy-based aggregation is a convenient device to confront this uncertainty and summarize relevant information from a set of candidate models and forecasts. The proposed aggregation tends to robustify the decision-making process to various sources of risks and uncertainty. We find compelling evidence for the advantages of entropy-based aggregation for forecasting inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Gospodinov & Esfandiar Massoumi, 2025. "On Model Aggregation and Forecast Combination," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:101967
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2025-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Andrew J. Patton, 2020. "Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 796-809, October.
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    7. Nikolay Gospodinov & Serena Ng, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 206-219, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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