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How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?

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  • Śmiech, Sławomir
  • Papież, Monika
  • Dąbrowski, Marek A.

Abstract

The study analyses the impact of different uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the Central and Eastern European countries. The paper provides different uncertainty measures which include: industrial, consumer and financial uncertainty, and, unlike previous studies, cover both external (the euro area) and internal (country-specific) sources of uncertainty. We provide evidence that uncertainty is a multidimensional phenomenon: consumer, industrial and financial uncertainty measures do not co-move. The main finding is that industrial production in the CEE countries negatively responds to external uncertainty shocks, whereas the reactions to internal uncertainty shocks are less clear-cut and depend on the category of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:252-266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.05.008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern European countries; Uncertainty measures; Industrial production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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