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Asymptotic Variance of Brier (Skill) Score in the Presence of Serial Correlation

Author

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  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Liu Yang

Abstract

We derive autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. A simulation experiment and an empirical application from macroeconomics underscore the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that the conventional variances are too conservative to account for the sampling variability in estimating the Brier (skill) score.

Suggested Citation

  • Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2015. "Asymptotic Variance of Brier (Skill) Score in the Presence of Serial Correlation," CESifo Working Paper Series 5290, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5290
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.
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    10. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
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    13. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability forecasts; serial correlation; Brier score; Brier skill score; survey of professional forecasters;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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