IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v119y2018icp55-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alternative HAC covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties

Author

Listed:
  • Hartigan, Luke

Abstract

HAC estimators are known to produce test statistics that reject too frequently in finite samples. One neglected reason comes from the OLS residuals used to construct the HAC estimator. If the design matrix contains leverage points, such as from outliers, then the OLS residuals will be downward biased. This makes the OLS residuals smaller than otherwise, thereby reducing their variance. Transformations to offset the bias via inflating the OLS residuals have been available in the related HC literature for some time, but these have been overlooked so far in the HAC literature. Using HC-inspired techniques and a range of simulations, this paper provides strong support for replacing the OLS residual-based HAC estimator with two new alternatives called HAC-PE and HAC-MDE when estimating coefficient standard errors to produce test statistics because they display much less size distortion in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartigan, Luke, 2018. "Alternative HAC covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:55-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2017.09.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947317302074
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.csda.2017.09.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chistiano, Lawrence J & den Haan, Wouter J, 1996. "Small-Sample Properties of GMM for Business-Cycle Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 309-327, July.
    2. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 2004. "Asymptotic inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 215-233, March.
    3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin S, 1996. "Small-Sample Properties of GMM-Based Wald Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 294-308, July.
    4. Keener, Robert W. & Kmenta, Jan & Weber, Neville C., 1991. "Estimation of the Covariance Matrix of the Least-Squares Regression Coefficients When the Disturbance Covariance Matrix Is of Unknown Form," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 22-45, March.
    5. West, Kenneth D., 1997. "Another heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent covariance matrix estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 171-191.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Francisco Cribari-Neto & Wilton Silva, 2011. "A new heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator for the linear regression model," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(2), pages 129-146, June.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, November.
    11. Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "Econometric Computing with HC and HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 11(i10).
    12. Chesher, Andrew & Jewitt, Ian, 1987. "The Bias of a Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1217-1222, September.
    13. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
    14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    15. Wouter J. den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 2000. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order," NBER Technical Working Papers 0255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert M. De Jong & James Davidson, 2000. "Consistency of Kernel Estimators of Heteroscedastic and Autocorrelated Covariance Matrices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 407-424, March.
    17. de Jong, Robert M., 2000. "A Strong Consistency Proof For Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 262-268, April.
    18. Chesher, Andrew & Austin, Gerard, 1991. "The finite-sample distributions of heteroskedasticity robust Wald statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 153-173, January.
    19. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 967-972, July.
    20. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    21. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    22. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
    23. Kauermann G. & Carroll R.J., 2001. "A Note on the Efficiency of Sandwich Covariance Matrix Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1387-1396, December.
    24. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Hsieh, Yu-Wei, 2008. "Improved HAC covariance matrix estimation based on forecast errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 89-92, April.
    25. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    26. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    27. Godfrey, L.G., 2006. "Tests for regression models with heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2715-2733, June.
    28. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    29. Jansson, Michael, 2002. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation For Linear Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1449-1459, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2020. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 271-293, September.
    2. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Luke Hartigan, 2016. "Testing for Symmetry in Weakly Dependent Time Series," Discussion Papers 2016-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Preinerstorfer, David & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2016. "On Size And Power Of Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 261-358, April.
    2. James G. MacKinnon, 2012. "Thirty Years Of Heteroskedasticity-robust Inference," Working Paper 1268, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin, 2005. "Improved HAR Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1513, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    5. Yongmiao Hong & Jin Lee, 2000. "Wavelet-based Estimation for Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Variance-Covariance Matrices," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1211, Econometric Society.
    6. Preinerstorfer, David, 2014. "Finite Sample Properties of Tests Based on Prewhitened Nonparametric Covariance Estimators," MPRA Paper 58333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 1995. "Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 504, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2006. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 681-714, May.
    9. Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 2017. "Resurrecting weighted least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 1-19.
    10. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Hsieh, Yu-Wei, 2008. "Improved HAC covariance matrix estimation based on forecast errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 89-92, April.
    11. Eric S. Lin & Ta-Sheng Chou, 2018. "Finite-sample refinement of GMM approach to nonlinear models under heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 1-28, January.
    12. Lu, Ye & Park, Joon Y., 2019. "Estimation of longrun variance of continuous time stochastic process using discrete sample," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 236-267.
    13. José Curto & José Pinto & Ana Morais & Isabel Lourenço, 2011. "The heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance estimator in accounting," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 427-449, November.
    14. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2020. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Federico Belotti & Alessandro Casini & Leopoldo Catania & Stefano Grassi & Pierre Perron, 2021. "Simultaneous Bandwidths Determination for DK-HAC Estimators and Long-Run Variance Estimation in Nonparametric Settings," Papers 2103.00060, arXiv.org.
    16. Benedikt M. Potscher & David Preinerstorfer, 2020. "How Reliable are Bootstrap-based Heteroskedasticity Robust Tests?," Papers 2005.04089, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    17. Wouter J. den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 2000. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order," NBER Technical Working Papers 0255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 328-352, July.
    19. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse, 2016. "Fixed-b Inference in the Presence of Time-Varying Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2016-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. repec:jss:jstsof:11:i10 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covariance matrix estimation; Finite sample analysis; Leverage points; Hypothesis testing; Monte Carlo simulation; Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:55-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.