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Do Machine Learning Models Hold the Key to Better Money Demand Forecasting?

In: Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia

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  • Taniya Ghosh
  • Sakshi Agarwal

Abstract

Significant evidence in the literature points to money demand instability and therefore inaccurate forecasting. In view of this issue, this chapter seeks to use a method, innovative for money demand literature, that is, the machine learning model to predict money demand. Specifically, this chapter uses Random Forest Regression to predict money demand using monthly data in the Indian context over the period April-1996 to December-2018 using the variables usually used in literature. The chapter finds that in money demand prediction, the Random Forest Regression performs fairly well. The results are also compared to traditional models and it is found that the Random Forest Regression model has the potential to enhance the prediction of money demand over what traditional models predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Taniya Ghosh & Sakshi Agarwal, 2021. "Do Machine Learning Models Hold the Key to Better Money Demand Forecasting?," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia, volume 29, pages 21-36, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:isetez:s1571-03862021000029a017
    DOI: 10.1108/S1571-03862021000029A017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; machine learning models; random forest regression; ARDL; forecasting; monetary policy; C45; C53; E41; E47; E49;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other

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