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Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico Using an Affine Model

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  • Elizondo Rocío

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the method of principal components. The forecasting model is specified as a linear relationship between each of the interest rates and these factors, for maturities of 1 to 60 months. Affine model predictions are compared with four benchmark models: a forward rate, an AR(1), a VAR(1), and a random walk model. The main finding is that the affine model has a performance comparable to benchmark models for horizons of 12 and 18 months, except for the random walk model. However, improving its forecasting performance for the 24-month horizon, and especially for 60-month maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizondo Rocío, 2013. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico Using an Affine Model," Working Papers 2013-03, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2013-03
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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