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Vector Autoregression Modelling and Forecasting Growth of South Korea

Author

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  • Ghatak, A.

Abstract

In this paper we have estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR), Bayesian VAR and Vector Error Correction models (VECMs) using annual time series data of SOuth Korea for 1950-1994. We find evidence supporting the view that growth of real per capita income has been aided by income, investment and export growth and government spending and exchange rate policies. VECMs provide better forecasts of growth than the VAR and BVAR models for both short-period and long-period ahead forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghatak, A., 1997. "Vector Autoregression Modelling and Forecasting Growth of South Korea," Department of Economics, De Montford University 97-02, Department of Economics, De Montfort University.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:demoec:97-02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Ghatak & Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: some evidence from across the world," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 381-394.
    2. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2019. "Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COINTEGRATION ; UNIT ROOTS ; ECONOMETRICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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