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What Happened to Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?

When dealing with market risk under the Basel II Accord, variation pays in the form of lower capital requirements and higher profits. Typically, GARCH type models are chosen to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a single risk model. In this paper we illustrate two useful variations to the standard mechanism for choosing forecasts, namely: (i) combining different forecast models for each period, such as a daily model that forecasts the supremum or infinum value for the VaR; (ii) alternatively, select a single model to forecast VaR, and then modify the daily forecast, depending on the recent history of violations under the Basel II Accord. We illustrate these points using the Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite Index. In many cases we find significant decreases in the capital requirements, while incurring a number of violations that stays within the Basel II Accord limits.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0919.

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Length: pages 13
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0919
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  1. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  2. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CARF F-Series CARF-F-164, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," KIER Working Papers 767, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Juan-�ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
  5. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009. "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CARF F-Series CARF-F-159, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  6. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  7. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Investments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 196-200, 02.
  8. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2005. "The Ten Commandments for Academics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 823-826, December.
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