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Scenarios for Future Global Growth to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Kenny

    (Center for Global Development)

  • Zack Gehan

    (Center for Global Development)

Abstract

We develop scenarios for the shape of the global economy in 2050 building on a simple regression of the historic relationship between current income and lagged income, demographic features, climate, and education, using the coefficients to develop a “central” forecast and error terms to set high and low bounds on country outcomes. Scenarios examine combinations of low and high outcomes for different country groupings. “Central” forecasts suggest slowing per capita growth rates for high income countries as well as many upper middle income countries including China, with continued global income convergence. Scenario exercises suggest the potential for considerable variation in outcomes including global share of the economy and voting power in international institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Kenny & Zack Gehan, 2023. "Scenarios for Future Global Growth to 2050," Working Papers 634, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:634
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic forecasts; global growth; international governance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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