A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development
This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published as background research for the 2010 Human Development Report.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 304 E 45th Street, FF-12th Floor, New York, NY, 10017|
Web page: http://hdr.undp.org
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- Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2009.
"The Diffusion of Development,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 469-529.
- Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2006. "The Diffusion of Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2007. "The Diffusion of Development," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0704, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Wacziarg, Romain & Spolaore, Enrico, 2006. "The Diffusion of Development," Research Papers 1898r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2006. "The Diffusion of Development," NBER Working Papers 12153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Felice Emanuele, 2005. "Il reddito delle regioni italiane nel 1938 e nel 1951. Una stima basata sul costo del lavoro," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 3-30.
- José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
- Gustav Ranis & Frances Stewart & Emma Samman, 2005.
"Human Development: Beyond the HDI,"
916, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Olivier Morand, 2004.
"Economic growth, longevity and the epidemiological transition,"
The European Journal of Health Economics,
Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 166-174, May.
- Olivier F. Morand, 2002. "Economic Growth, Longevity, and the Epidemiological Transition," Working papers 2002-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Leandro Conte & Giuseppe Della Torre & Michelangelo Vasta, 2007. "The Human Development Index in Historical Perspective: Italy from Political Unification to the Present Day," Department of Economics University of Siena 491, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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