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A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development


  • Jana Asher

    () (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), StatAid)

  • Beth Osborne Daponte

    () (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), Yale University)


This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Asher & Beth Osborne Daponte, 2010. "A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-40, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  • Handle: RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-40

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Olivier Morand, 2004. "Economic growth, longevity and the epidemiological transition," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 5(2), pages 166-174, May.
    2. Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart and Emma Samman, "undated". "Human Development: beyond the HDI," QEH Working Papers qehwps135, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    3. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The Diffusion of Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 469-529.
    4. Leandro Conte & Giuseppe Della Torre & Michelangelo Vasta, 2007. "The Human Development Index in Historical Perspective: Italy from Political Unification to the Present Day," Department of Economics University of Siena 491, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    6. Felice Emanuele, 2005. "Il reddito delle regioni italiane nel 1938 e nel 1951. Una stima basata sul costo del lavoro," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 3-30.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siddique, Ahmed & Waseem, Ansar & Mamoon, Dawood, 2017. "Did We find Alternate to GDP to measure National Progress? Analysis of Harvard University’s Social Progress Index," MPRA Paper 81503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. durongkaveroj, wannaphong & osathanunkul, rossarin, 2014. "การลดความยากจนและการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจในกลุ่มประเทศต่างๆ
      [Poverty Reduction and Economic Development in various groups of country]
      ," MPRA Paper 54433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2014.
    3. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj and Rossarin Osathanunkul & Rossarin Osathanunkul, 2013. "Regional multipliers of social accounting matrix and the effective eradication of poverty," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(4), pages 39-52, December.
    4. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    More about this item


    human development index; conflict; hypothetical cohorts;

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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