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The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)

Author

Listed:
  • Szilárd Benk

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Mihály András Kovács

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Balázs Párkányi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán Reppa

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Gábor Vadas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may face. This version of the model is used to produce the Bank’s quarterly projections, as well as to perform simulations and scenario analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács & Balázs Párkányi & Zoltán Reppa & Gábor Vadas, 2006. "The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/60, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2006/60
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-60.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Hungary: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/314, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec, 2008. "Koncepcja bogactwa gospodarstw domowych. Szacunki dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 19-50.
    4. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/43, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    7. Zoltán M. Jakab & Viktor Várpalotai & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "How does monetary policy affect aggregate demand? A multimodel approach for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2006/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Vincze, János & Bíró, Anikó & Elek, Péter, 2007. "Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével [Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 774-799.
    9. Tamás Ilyés & Lóránt Varga, 2015. "A General Equilibrium Approach of Retail Payments," MNB Working Papers 2015/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Katalin Szilágyi & Dániel Baksa & Jaromir Benes & Ágnes Horváth & Csaba Köber & Gábor D. Soós, 2013. "The Hungarian Monetary Policy Model," MNB Working Papers 2013/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    11. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Thomas Reininger, 2008. "Factors Driving Import Demand in Selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 100-125.
    13. Péter Harasztosi, 2011. "Growth in Hungary 1994-2008: The role of capital, labour, productivity and reallocation," MNB Working Papers 2011/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Bethlendi, András, 2007. "A hitelpiac szerepe a hazai háztartások fogyasztási és megtakarítási döntéseiben [The role of the credit market in consumption and saving decisions of Hungarian households]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1041-1065.
    15. Zoltán M. Jakab & Balázs Világi, 2008. "An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2008/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric modelling; forecasting; simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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