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A latent factor model for ordinal data to measure multivariate predictive ability of financial market movements

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe HUBER

    (University of Geneva, HEC and FAME)

  • Olivier SCAILLET

    (University of Geneva, HEC and FAME)

  • Maria-Pia VICTORIA-FESER

    (University of Geneva, HEC and FAME)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a Laplace approximation, and show its consistency and asymptotic normality. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that both the estimation method and the testing procedure perform well in small samples. An empirical illustration is given for mid-term forecasts simultaneously made by two broker-dealers for several countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe HUBER & Olivier SCAILLET & Maria-Pia VICTORIA-FESER, 2005. "A latent factor model for ordinal data to measure multivariate predictive ability of financial market movements," FAME Research Paper Series rp159, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp159
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural equation model; latent variable; generalised linear model; factor analysis; multinomial logit; forecasts; LAMLE; canonical correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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