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A csődelőrejelzés és a nem fizetési valószínűség számításának módszertani kérdéseiről
[Some methodological questions of bankruptcy prediction and probability of default estimation]

Author

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  • Kristóf, Tamás

Abstract

A Bázel-2 tőkeegyezmény magyarországi bevezetése új lendületet adott a sokváltozós csőd-előrejelzési módszerek alkalmazásnak és továbbfejlődésének. A cikk a nemzetközi szakirodalomban és pénzintézeti gyakorlatban leggyakrabban alkalmazott négy csőd-előrejelzési módszer becslőképességét hasonlítja össze. Empirikus vizsgálattal alátámasztva igyekszik választ találni arra a kérdésre, vajon a kevésbé szigorú alkalmazási feltételeket támasztó szimulációs eljárások megbízhatóbb csődelőrejelzést, valamint a nem fizetési valószínűségek jobb becslését tesznek-e lehetővé, mint a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai alapú eljárások. Az empirikus vizsgálat eredményei arra is rávilágítanak, hogy a főkomponens-elemzéssel nem feltétlenül növekszik az előrejelző képesség. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C52, C53, C45, G33.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristóf, Tamás, 2008. "A csődelőrejelzés és a nem fizetési valószínűség számításának módszertani kérdéseiről [Some methodological questions of bankruptcy prediction and probability of default estimation]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 441-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:995
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benedek, Gábor, 2000. "Evolúciós alkalmazások előrejelzési modellekben I [Evolutionary applications in forecasting models, Part I]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 988-1007.
    2. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
    3. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    4. Engelmann, Bernd & Hayden, Evelyn & Tasche, Dirk, 2003. "Measuring the Discriminative Power of Rating Systems," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Nyitrai, Tamás, 2014. "Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? [Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classific," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 566-585.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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