Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors
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- Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
References listed on IDEAS
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"Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
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Citations
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- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 2017-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E Clark & Michael W McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," BIS Working Papers 667, Bank for International Settlements.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 17-15R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1715, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
- Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Travis J. Berge, 2023.
"Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
- Travis J. Berge, 2020. "Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-012r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 14 Apr 2021.
- Romanus, Eduardo E. & Silva, Eugênio & Goldschmidt, Ronaldo R., 2024. "Empirical probabilistic forecasting: An approach solely based on deterministic explanatory variables for the selection of past forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 184-201.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2018.
"Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 105-116.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2014.
"Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2009. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,28, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017.
"Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2017-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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More about this item
Keywords
Multi-step-ahead forecasts; forecast error variance; GLS; SUR;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2009-11-07 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-11-07 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2009-11-07 (Forecasting)
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