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The Predictive Power of Monetary Policy on International Stock Market Returns-Evidence From TV-ARMAX Model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao Li
  • Wenjun Xue
  • Kaimeng Zhang

    (Department of Finance, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the time-varying ARMA model with exogenous variable (TV-ARMAX) to examine the predictive power of monetary policy on international stock returns. This method allows time-varying coefficient estimates and uses time-dependent cumulated variation penalty to filter noisy outlier data points. Based on a wide range of 31 countries, our method robustly outperforms other popular methods including the simple linear-regression model (SLM), the vector autoregression and its variants (VAR, TV-VAR, and VARX) and the ARMA model with exogenous variable (ARMAX).

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Li & Wenjun Xue & Kaimeng Zhang, 2024. "The Predictive Power of Monetary Policy on International Stock Market Returns-Evidence From TV-ARMAX Model," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnael:94
    DOI: 2024/06/28
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Imbierowicz, Björn & Steffen, Sascha & Teichmann, Daniel, 2020. "Does the lack of financial stability impair the transmission of monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 342-365.
    2. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    3. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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