IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v86y2018i1p21-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Times of Crisis: A New Keynesian Perspective in Continuous Time

Author

Listed:
  • Britta Förster
  • Bernd Hayo

Abstract

To analyse the interdependence between monetary and fiscal policy during a financial crisis, we develop an open†economy DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy, as well as financial markets, in a continuous†time framework based on stochastic differential equations. Monetary policy is modelled using both a standard and a modified Taylor rule and fiscal policy is modelled as either expansionary or austere. In addition, we differentiate between open economies and monetary union members. We find evidence that the modified Taylor rule notably reduces the likelihood that the financial market crisis affects the real economy. However, if we assume that households are averse to outstanding government debt, we find that a combination of expansionary monetary policy and austerity†oriented fiscal policy does a better job of stabilising both domestic and foreign economies in regard to both output and inflation. In the case of a monetary union, we find that stabilization of output in the country where the financial shock originated is no longer as easy and, in terms of prices, there is now deflation in that country and a positive inflation rate in the other member country of the monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Britta Förster & Bernd Hayo, 2018. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Times of Crisis: A New Keynesian Perspective in Continuous Time," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(1), pages 21-48, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:86:y:2018:i:1:p:21-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12173
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    2. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
    3. S. Bianchi & A. Pantanella & A. Pianese, 2013. "Modeling stock prices by multifractional Brownian motion: an improved estimation of the pointwise regularity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 1317-1330, July.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    5. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    6. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    7. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    8. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    9. Martin Andreasen, 2010. "How to Maximize the Likelihood Function for a DSGE Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 127-154, February.
    10. Stephan Fahr & Frank Smets, 2010. "Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 812-840, December.
    11. Leith, Campbell & von Thadden, Leopold, 2008. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 279-313, May.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 972, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    14. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2012. "Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 238-264, March.
    15. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.
    17. Bergstrom,Albert Rex & Nowman,Khalid Ben, 2012. "A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107411234, December.
    18. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    19. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    20. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    21. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    22. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    23. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The output gap and stock returns: Do cyclical fluctuations predict portfolio returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 40-50.
    24. Kai Leitemo & Øistein Røisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2005. "Monetary policy rules and the exchange rate channel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1165-1170.
    25. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    26. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
    27. Martin Andreasen, 2012. "On the Effects of Rare Disasters and Uncertainty Shocks for Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 295-316, July.
    28. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
    29. Bergstrom,Albert Rex & Nowman,Khalid Ben, 2007. "A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875493, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:86:y:2018:i:1:p:21-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.