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Forecasting volatility in bitcoin market

Author

Listed:
  • Mawuli Segnon

    (University of Münster)

  • Stelios Bekiros

    (European University Institute
    Athens University of Economics & Business)

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the stylized facts of bitcoin markets and propose various approaches for modeling the dynamics governing the mean and variance processes. We first provide the statistical properties of our proposed models and study in detail their forecasting performance and adequacy by means of point and density forecasts. We adopt two loss functions and the model confidence set test to evaluate the predictive ability of the models and the likelihood ratio test to assess their adequacy. Our results confirm that bitcoin markets are characterized by regime shifting, long memory and multifractality. We find that the Markov switching multifractal and FIGARCH models outperform other GARCH-type models in forecasting bitcoin returns volatility. Furthermore, combined forecasts improve upon forecasts from individual models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mawuli Segnon & Stelios Bekiros, 2020. "Forecasting volatility in bitcoin market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 435-462, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:16:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10436-020-00368-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-020-00368-y
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    Cited by:

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    3. Łęt Blanka & Sobański Konrad & Świder Wojciech & Włosik Katarzyna, 2022. "Is the cryptocurrency market efficient? Evidence from an analysis of fundamental factors for Bitcoin and Ethereum," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(4), pages 351-370, December.
    4. Jalan, Akanksha & Matkovskyy, Roman & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2023. "The role of interpersonal trust in cryptocurrency adoption," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Amaro, Raphael & Pinho, Carlos, 2022. "Energy commodities: A study on model selection for estimating Value-at-Risk," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 5-27.
    6. Gradojevic, Nikola & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2021. "Volatility cascades in cryptocurrency trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 252-265.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Multifractal processes; GARCH processes; Model confidence set; Likelihood ratio test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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