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Medium-Run Scenarios Of The Romanian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

The paper presents two scenarios, an inertial scenario and a restructuring scenario based on the last version of the author’s macromodel (Dobrescu 2000). The forecasts were made over a five-six years period and the indicators used were total population, population over 15 years, labour force, total retired people and retired people receiving state social insurance, excluding farmers. The inertial scenario (INERSC) has been simulated in several versions, all of them proving that the Romanian economy cannot surpass the present stagflation. The modelling premises for the restructuring scenario (RESSC) are strictly depending on the creation of a well-structured and functional market mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2000. "Medium-Run Scenarios Of The Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 8-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:1:p:8-28
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic strategy; macromodel; Romanian transition economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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