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Medium-Run Scenarios Of The Romanian Economy


  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    () (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)


The paper presents two scenarios, an inertial scenario and a restructuring scenario based on the last version of the author’s macromodel (Dobrescu 2000). The forecasts were made over a five-six years period and the indicators used were total population, population over 15 years, labour force, total retired people and retired people receiving state social insurance, excluding farmers. The inertial scenario (INERSC) has been simulated in several versions, all of them proving that the Romanian economy cannot surpass the present stagflation. The modelling premises for the restructuring scenario (RESSC) are strictly depending on the creation of a well-structured and functional market mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2000. "Medium-Run Scenarios Of The Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 8-28, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:1:p:8-28

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Emilian Dobrescu, "undated". "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    2. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 version. Yearly Forecast – Preliminary results for 2007," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 124-126, December.
    3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.

    More about this item


    economic strategy; macromodel; Romanian transition economy;

    JEL classification:

    • P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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