IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The evolution of durable goods demand during China’s transition. An empirical analysis of household survey data from 1989 to 2006

  • Andreas Beerli
Registered author(s):

    Durable goods ownership is commonly seen as a ‘defining gauge’ for the stage of development of a country. Its unprecedented economic growth and the rise of a strong and steadily growing class of consumers make China a formidable case study for the investigation of durable goods diffusion. Drawing on a household-panel with a survey period from 1989 to 2006, the empirical analysis of the driving forces behind the diffusion of durable goods shows that growth of disposable income was not equally important for all goods in their diffusion process. Rather it was the fall of individual preference thresholds (explained in part by falling durable prices) that proved to have a significant influence on the diffusion process of some goods. As it turned out, this tendency was significantly stronger in rural areas and could have counterbalanced, therefore, welfare patterns in terms of ownership contrary to the stable urban-rural gap in economic performance. Apart from changes in income and durable prices, it was found, that improvement of public services had particularly strong effects for urban poor and in rural areas. A forecast exercise up to 2030 revealed that growth in ownership rates is expected to be particularly strong for durable goods like refrigerators and cars for which households already show (or are about to do so in the case of cars) high sensitivity towards further increases in their disposable income. For other durables, like colour TVs, that are already well spread in the population there are signs of saturation with lower expected growth rates of ownership. Additionally, ownership rates are expected to pick up stronger in rural areas were households are less saturated and show higher income elasticities. As a comparison with figures from the literature demonstrates, actual and projected ownership rates depend, to some degree, also on the choice of the data set. The projections based on CHNS data could, therefore, build a reference to other commonly used data sets from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.iew.uzh.ch/wp/iewwp494.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 494.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Jul 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:494
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Rämistrasse 71, CH-8006 Zürich
    Phone: +41-1-634 21 37
    Fax: +41-1-634 49 82
    Web page: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.