IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/chb/bcchec/v15y2012i1p4-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Castillo B.
  • Carlos Montoro Ll.

Abstract

We analyze the effects of informal labor markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labor market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on inflation. Finding that is consistent with the empirical literature on the effects of informal labor markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that in economies with large informal labor markets the interest rate channel of monetary policy is relatively weaker. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo B. & Carlos Montoro Ll., 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 4-31, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:15:y:2012:i:1:p:4-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2012/abr/recv15n1abr2012pp4-31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2008. "Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1494-1521, November.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    5. Cheron, Arnaud & Langot, Francois, 2000. "The Phillips and Beveridge curves revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 371-376, December.
    6. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Larsen, Birthe, 2003. "Does Tax Evation Affect Unemployment and Educational Choice?," Working Paper Series 2003:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Shadow Sorting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 125-163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
    10. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    11. Christoffel, Kai & Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for unemployment and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 556, European Central Bank.
    12. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    13. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    14. Mariano Bosch, 2006. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp0761, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    16. Altug,Sumru & Chadha,Jagjit S. & Nolan,Charles (ed.), 2003. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826686, October.
    17. Schneider, Friedrich, 2004. "The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: First Results over the Period 1999 to 2003," IZA Discussion Papers 1431, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    19. Altug,Sumru & Chadha,Jagjit S. & Nolan,Charles (ed.), 2003. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521534031, October.
    20. Maurizio Bovi, 2007. "Shadow Employment and Labor Productivity Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(4‐5), pages 735-761, December.
    21. Fugazza, Marco & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 2004. "Labor market institutions, taxation and the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 395-418, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    2. Bracha, Anat & Burke, Mary A., 2018. "Wage inflation and informal work," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 159-163.
    3. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2013. "Informality and macroeconomic fluctuations: A small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model with dual labour markets," Working Papers 2013002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wróbel, 2016. "Modelling monetary transmission in less developed emerging markets: the case of Tunisia," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 395-434.
    5. McKenzie, Rex A, 2015. "Monetary transmission in Africa: a review of official sources," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    6. Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2023. "eru: labour market, wages and monetary policy in the aftermath of Covid-19," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 221-236, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2015. "Creación y Destrucción de Empleos e Informalidad," Working Papers 54, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. Rümeysa Çelik & Abdurrahman Keskin & Abdulkadir Keskin, 2021. "Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Kayıt Dışı İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 451-474, June.
    9. Yépez, Carlos A., 2019. "Informality and international business cycles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 252-263.
    10. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:395-434 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Khurrum S. Mughal & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2020. "How Informal Sector Affects the Formal Economy in Pakistan? A Lesson for Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 7-21, June.
    12. Peters Idowu & Yaaba N. Baba & Adetoba O. Olufunso & Tomologu-Okunomo E. Aduni & Tonuchi E. Joseph, 2020. "How Effective is Monetary Policy in the Presence of High Informality in Nigeria," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 84-93.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos, 2010. "Monetary Policy in the presence of Informal Labour Markets," Working Papers 2010-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    3. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-162, April.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    5. Raissi, Mehdi, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting and labor market inefficiencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 283-300.
    6. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    7. Mattesini, Fabrizio & Rossi, Lorenza, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in economies with dual labor markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1469-1489, July.
    8. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "The welfare consequences of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2009-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2008. "Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1494-1521, November.
    10. Lorenza Rossi & Fabrizio Mattesini, 2008. "We analyze, in this paper, a DSGE New Keynesian model with indi- visible labor where firms may belong to two different final goods producing sectors one where wages and employment are determined in co," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0077, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    11. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2008. "Productivity Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy In A Unionized Labor Market Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 578-611, September.
    12. Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A theory of countercyclical government-consumption multiplier," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54277, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 309-332.
    14. Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2010. "On-the-job search, sticky prices, and persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, March.
    15. Rossi, Lorenza & Mattesini, Fabrizio, 2007. "Productivity Shock and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Unionized Labor Market. Forthcoming: The Manchester School," MPRA Paper 8414, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    16. Raissi, M., 2011. "A Linear Quadratic Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1146, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    18. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.
    19. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy and downward nominal wage rigidity in frictional labor markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 345-364.
    20. Carlos Thomas, 2011. "Search Frictions, Real Rigidities, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1131-1164, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:15:y:2012:i:1:p:4-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fredherick Sanllehi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.