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Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

  • Paul Castillo B.
  • Carlos Montoro Ll.

We analyze the effects of informal labor markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labor market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on inflation. Finding that is consistent with the empirical literature on the effects of informal labor markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that in economies with large informal labor markets the interest rate channel of monetary policy is relatively weaker. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment consistent with the data.

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Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.

Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 4-31

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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:15:y:2012:i:1:p:4-31
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  1. Gertler, Mark & Trigari, Antonella, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Maurizio Bovi, 2007. "Shadow Employment and Labor Productivity Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(4-5), pages 735-761, December.
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  5. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2008. "Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1494-1521, November.
  8. Thomas Lubik & Michael Krause, 2003. "The (Ir)relevance of Real Wage Rigidity in the New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 504, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  9. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
  10. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Larsen, Birthe, 2006. "Does Tax Evasion Affect Unemployment and Educational Choice?," Working Papers 12-2003, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
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  12. Trigari, Antonella, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0304, European Central Bank.
  13. Chéron, A. & Langot, François, 1999. "The Phillips and Beveridge curves revisited," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9905, CEPREMAP.
  14. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Shadow Sorting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 125-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Mariano Bosch, 2006. "Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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