IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Waqas
  • Rehman, Muhammad
  • Malik, Jahanzeb

Abstract

In this paper we use the Bayesian methodology to estimate the structural and shocks‟ parameters of the DSGE model in Ahmad et al. (2012). This model includes formal and informal firms both at intermediate and final goods production levels. Households derive utility from leisure, real money balances and consumption. Each household is treated as a unit of labor which is a composite of formal (skilled) and informal (unskilled) labor. The formal (skilled) labor is further divided into types “r” and households have monopoly over each type “r” labor which depends upon degree of education. We go a step further by converting the existing annually calibrated model to quarterly frequency. As a result our impulse response functions have more relevant and realistic policy implications. From the results we do find the shock absorbing role of the informal sector, however, with short term existence. The model estimation diagnostics also confirm robustness and reasonability of the estimation results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Waqas & Rehman, Muhammad & Malik, Jahanzeb, 2013. "Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality," MPRA Paper 53168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53168/1/MPRA_paper_53168.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Waqas Ahmed & Farooq Pasha & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Pakistan Economy DSGE Model with Informality," SBP Working Paper Series 47, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    2. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    3. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy Model under Inflation Targeting: Some Evidence from Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 13, pages 511-562, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Ahmed, Waqas & Haider, Adnan & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Estimation of discount factor (beta) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (gamma) in selected countries," MPRA Paper 39736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2010. "Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    7. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2010. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," NIPE Working Papers 29/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Waqas Ahmed & Adnan Haider & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Estimation of Discount Factor ß and Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion ? in Selected Countries," Working Papers id:5087, eSocialSciences.
    9. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
    11. Fagan, Gabriel & Messina, Julián, 2009. "Downward wage rigidity and optimal steady-state inflation," Working Paper Series 1048, European Central Bank.
    12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghiaie, Hamed & Auclair, Gregory & Noah Ndela Ntsama, Jean Frederic, 2019. "Macroeconomic and welfare effects of tax reforms in emerging economies: A case study of Morocco," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 666-699.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Shahid, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul & Shahid Malik, Waseem, 2016. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in Pakistan Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," MPRA Paper 85549, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    3. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    4. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2017. "The Portuguese post-2008 period: A narrative from an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers w201715, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    6. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    8. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, September.
    9. Ana Maria Santacreu, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Working Papers 2014-44, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Stéphane Auray & Paul Gomme & Shen Guo, 2013. "Nominal Rigidities, Monetary Policy and Pigou Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 455-473, May.
    11. Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2009. "Uncovering the Hit List for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 583-618, June.
    12. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    15. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    16. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernández-Villaverde, 2005. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 891-910.
    17. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
    18. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    20. Kolasa, Marcin, 2009. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1245-1269, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Shock Process.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.