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Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality

  • Ahmed, Waqas
  • Rehman, Muhammad
  • Malik, Jahanzeb

In this paper we use the Bayesian methodology to estimate the structural and shocks‟ parameters of the DSGE model in Ahmad et al. (2012). This model includes formal and informal firms both at intermediate and final goods production levels. Households derive utility from leisure, real money balances and consumption. Each household is treated as a unit of labor which is a composite of formal (skilled) and informal (unskilled) labor. The formal (skilled) labor is further divided into types “r” and households have monopoly over each type “r” labor which depends upon degree of education. We go a step further by converting the existing annually calibrated model to quarterly frequency. As a result our impulse response functions have more relevant and realistic policy implications. From the results we do find the shock absorbing role of the informal sector, however, with short term existence. The model estimation diagnostics also confirm robustness and reasonability of the estimation results.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53168.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53168
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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  2. Ahmed, Waqas & Haider, Adnan & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Estimation of discount factor (beta) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (gamma) in selected countries," MPRA Paper 39736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2011. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," Working Papers 11/95, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  5. Waqas Ahmed & Farooq Pasha & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Pakistan Economy DSGE Model with Informality," SBP Working Paper Series 47, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  6. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:34, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  7. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  8. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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