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Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Waqas
  • Rehman, Muhammad
  • Malik, Jahanzeb

Abstract

In this paper we use the Bayesian methodology to estimate the structural and shocks‟ parameters of the DSGE model in Ahmad et al. (2012). This model includes formal and informal firms both at intermediate and final goods production levels. Households derive utility from leisure, real money balances and consumption. Each household is treated as a unit of labor which is a composite of formal (skilled) and informal (unskilled) labor. The formal (skilled) labor is further divided into types “r” and households have monopoly over each type “r” labor which depends upon degree of education. We go a step further by converting the existing annually calibrated model to quarterly frequency. As a result our impulse response functions have more relevant and realistic policy implications. From the results we do find the shock absorbing role of the informal sector, however, with short term existence. The model estimation diagnostics also confirm robustness and reasonability of the estimation results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Waqas & Rehman, Muhammad & Malik, Jahanzeb, 2013. "Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality," MPRA Paper 53168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Waqas Ahmed & Adnan Haider & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Estimation of Discount Factor ß and Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion ? in Selected Countries," Working Papers id:5087, eSocialSciences.
    2. Waqas Ahmed & Farooq Pasha & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Pakistan Economy DSGE Model with Informality," SBP Working Paper Series 47, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2010. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," NIPE Working Papers 29/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
    5. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy Model under Inflation Targeting: Some Evidence from Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 13, pages 511-562 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    7. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    8. Fagan, Gabriel & Messina, Julián, 2009. "Downward wage rigidity and optimal steady-state inflation," Working Paper Series 1048, European Central Bank.
    9. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    10. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2007. "The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22213, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Ahmed, Waqas & Haider, Adnan & Iqbal, Javed, 2012. "Estimation of discount factor (beta) and coefficient of relative risk aversion (gamma) in selected countries," MPRA Paper 39736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    2. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Estimation; DSGE Model; Shock Process.;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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