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Nudging for Tax Compliance: A Meta-Analysis

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  • Armenak Antinyan
  • Zareh Asatryan

Abstract

Tax compliance nudges are used increasingly by governments because of their perceived cost-effectiveness in raising tax revenue. We collect about a thousand treatment effect estimates from 45 randomized controlled trials, and synthesize this rapidly growing literature using meta-analytical methods. We show that interventions pointing to elements of individual tax morale are on average ineffective in curbing tax evasion (when evaluated against a control group of taxpayers receiving neutral communication). In contrast, deterrence nudges - interventions emphasizing traditional determinants of compliance such as audit probabilities and penalty rates - increase compliance. However, their effects are modest in magnitude increasing the probability of compliance by 1.5-2.5 percentage points more than non-deterrence nudges. Our additional results suggest that nudges i) work better on sub-samples of late payers and when delivered in-person, ii) are less effective in the long-run and in lower-income countries, and iii) are somewhat inflated by selective reporting of results.

Suggested Citation

  • Armenak Antinyan & Zareh Asatryan, 2020. "Nudging for Tax Compliance: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8500, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8500
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    18. Karver,Jonathan George & Shijaku,Hilda & Ungerer,Christoph T F, 2022. "Nudging in the Time of the Coronavirus : Evidence from an Experimental Tax Trial in Albania at theOnset of a Global Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9961, The World Bank.
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    20. Kaisa Kotakorpiⓡ & Tuomas Nurminenⓡ & Topi Miettinen ⓡ & Satu Metsälampiⓡ & Kaisa Kotakorpi, 2022. "Bearing the Burden - Implications of Tax Reporting Institutions and Image Concerns on Evasion and Incidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9791, CESifo.
    21. von Haldenwang, Christian, 2020. "Digitalising the fiscal contract: An interdisciplinary framework for empirical inquiry," IDOS Discussion Papers 20/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    22. Holzmeister, Felix & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Schwaiger, Rene, 2022. "Nudging debtors to pay their debt: Two randomized controlled trials," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 535-551.
    23. Schächtele, Simeon & Eguino, Huáscar & Roman, Soraya, 2022. "Improving taxpayer registration through nudging? Field experimental evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    24. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Tuomas Nurminen & Topi Miettinen & Satu Metsälampi, 2022. "Bearing the burden – Implications of tax reporting institutions and image concerns on evasion and incidence," Working Papers 3, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax compliance; randomized control trials; nudging; tax morale; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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