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Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo Cruces

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET & U. of Nottingham)

  • Dario Tortarolo

    (DECRG World Bank)

  • Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

    (UC Santa Barbara)

Abstract

We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome distributions. We study the large-sample behavior of OLS estimators and cluster-robust variance estimators and show that (i) ignoring cluster heterogeneity may result in severely underpowered experiments and (ii) the cluster-robust variance estimator may be upward-biased when clusters are heterogeneous. We derive formulas for power, minimum detectable effects, and optimal cluster assignment probabilities. All our results apply to cluster experiments, a particular case of our framework. We set up a potential outcomes framework to interpret the OLS estimands as causal effects. We implement our methods in a large-scale experiment to estimate the direct and spillover effects of a communication campaign on property tax compliance. We find an increase in tax compliance among individuals directly targeted with our mailing, as well as compliance spillovers on untreated individuals in clusters with a high proportion of treated taxpayers.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Cruces & Dario Tortarolo & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2024. "Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0337, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antinyan, Armenak & Asatryan, Zareh, 2019. "Nudging for tax compliance: A meta-analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-055, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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