IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v151y2025ics0264999325001932.html

Asymmetric overnight rate pass-through to bank loan rates: A meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Iorngurum, Tersoo David

Abstract

The literature offers mixed results on how bank lending rates respond to positive and negative fluctuations in the overnight interbank rate. Therefore, using data from 80 studies covering 30 years of research, this study employs meta-regression methods to investigate asymmetry in the overnight rate pass-through. The results show that the pass-through is asymmetric, with bank lending rates reacting more strongly to positive fluctuations than negative fluctuations. The results also show that the pass-through increases with trade openness and private sector credit supply but decreases with net national savings, while the degree of asymmetry increases with stock market size and trade openness but diminishes with central bank independence, net national savings, and monetary integration. Altogether, these findings reconcile the literature and offer new insights into the determinants of asymmetry and heterogeneity, underscoring the need to control for both in modeling the overnight rate pass-through.

Suggested Citation

  • Iorngurum, Tersoo David, 2025. "Asymmetric overnight rate pass-through to bank loan rates: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001932
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001932
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cala, Petr & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Matousek, Jindrich & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Financial Incentives and Performance: A Meta-Analysis of Economics Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 17680, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    4. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    5. Thosapon Tonghui & Jin Seo Cho, 2023. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-through and Its Effects on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Thailand," Working papers 2023rwp-220, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    6. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    7. Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, 2011. "Determinants of Interest Rate Pass-Through: Do Macroeconomic Conditions and Financial Market Structure Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/176, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Leonardo Gambacorta & S. Iannotti, 2007. "Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2503-2517.
    9. Luca Fornaro, 2022. "A Theory of Monetary Union and Financial Integration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1911-1947.
    10. Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
    11. Diamond, Peter A., 1971. "A model of price adjustment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 156-168, June.
    12. Stelios Karagiannis & Yannis Panagopoulos & Prodromos Vlamis, 2014. "The Response of Bank Retail Rates to Money Market Rates in the BRIC Economies: An Application of the Disaggregated GETS Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 153-168, March.
    13. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    14. Pedersen, Michael, 2018. "Credit risk and monetary pass-through—Evidence from Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 144-158.
    15. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
    16. Ausubel, Lawrence M, 1991. "The Failure of Competition in the Credit Card Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 50-81, March.
    17. Kolasa Marcin, 2008. "How does FDI inflow affect productivity of domestic firms? The role of horizontal and vertical spillovers, absorptive capacity and competition," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 155-173.
    18. Abbas Valadkhani & Sajid Anwar & Amir Arjomandi, 2014. "Downward stickiness of interest rates in the Australian credit card market," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 52-65, January.
    19. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    20. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    21. Adam Ashcraft & James Mcandrews & David Skeie, 2011. "Precautionary Reserves and the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 311-348, October.
    22. Aurrlien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through in Eurozone," Post-Print hal-03533188, HAL.
    23. Mihaylov, Mihail, 2016. "Determinants of loan interest rates in a country with a currency board: Evidence from Bulgaria," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 355-372.
    24. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    25. Gregory Cox & Xiaoxia Shi, 2023. "Simple Adaptive Size-Exact Testing for Full-Vector and Subvector Inference in Moment Inequality Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 201-228.
    26. Orley Ashenfelter & Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek, 1999. "A Review of Estimates of the Schooling/Earnings Relationship, with Tests for Publication Bias," Working Papers 804, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    27. Pablo Cotler & Rodrigo Carrillo, 2024. "The interest rate pass-through by loan size: Evidence for Mexico, 2011-2019," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    28. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    29. Zulkhibri, Muhamed, 2012. "Policy rate pass-through and the adjustment of retail interest rates: Empirical evidence from Malaysian financial institutions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 409-422.
    30. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    31. repec:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i::p:99-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. R. Dimas Bagas Herlambang & Rudi Purwono & Rumayya, 2023. "Testing the consistency of asymmetric interest rate pass-through: The case of Indonesia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2178124-217, December.
    33. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    34. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    35. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta‐Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, February.
    36. Tomáš Havránek & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Pedro Bom & Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Ichiro Iwasaki & W. Robert Reed & Katja Rost & R. C. M. van Aert, 2020. "Reporting Guidelines For Meta‐Analysis In Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 469-475, July.
    37. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    38. Greenwood, Jeremy & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 145-181, January.
    39. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2024. "Fifty shades of QE: Robust evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    40. Marotta, Giuseppe, 2009. "Structural breaks in the lending interest rate pass-through and the euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 191-205, January.
    41. Graham Elliott & Nikolay Kudrin & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2022. "Detecting p‐Hacking," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 887-906, March.
    42. Galindo, Arturo J. & Steiner, Roberto, 2022. "Asymmetric interest rate transmission in an inflation-targeting framework: The case of Colombia," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    43. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    44. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    45. Sigmund, Michael & Siebenbrunner, Christoph, 2024. "Do interbank markets price systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    46. Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui & Ge, Xinyu, 2021. "China’s interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 257-274.
    47. repec:fth:prinin:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Jiří Gregor & Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2021. "Interest Rate Pass‐Through: A Meta‐Analysis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 141-191, February.
    49. Holland, Quynh Chau Pham & Liu, Benjamin & Roca, Eduardo & Salisu, Afees A., 2020. "Mortgage asymmetric pricing, cash rate and international funding cost: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 46-68.
    50. Garriga, Ana Carolina, 2025. "Revisiting Central Bank Independence in the World: An Extended Dataset," MPRA Paper 123578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through, monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 236-251, March.
    52. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    53. Jose Angelo Divino & Carlos Haraguchi, 2023. "Observed and expected interest rate pass-through under remarkably high market rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 203-246, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Alonzo Fern'andez Salguero, 2025. "The Crisis Simulator for Bolivia (KISr-p): An Empirically Grounded Modeling Framework," Papers 2510.16537, arXiv.org.
    2. Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero, 2025. "An Analysis of Monetary Policy Evidence and Theory through Meta-Analyses," Papers 2509.19591, arXiv.org.
    3. Salguero, Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez, 2025. "Un análisis de la evidencia y teoría de la política monetaria a través de los meta-análisis," SocArXiv 9sypa_v1, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    2. Jiří Gregor & Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký, 2021. "Interest Rate Pass‐Through: A Meta‐Analysis Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 141-191, February.
    3. Zuzana Irsova & Hristos Doucouliagos & Tomas Havranek & T. D. Stanley, 2024. "Meta‐analysis of social science research: A practitioner's guide," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1547-1566, December.
    4. Mattia Filomena & Matteo Picchio, 2023. "Retirement and health outcomes in a meta‐analytical framework," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1120-1155, September.
    5. Roman Horvath & Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Publication and Identification Biases in Measuring the Intertemporal Substitution of Labor Supply," Working Papers IES 2020/32, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Tersoo David Iorngurum, 2025. "The exchange rate pass‐through to domestic prices: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 1092-1124, July.
    7. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    8. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    11. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    12. repec:osf:metaar:nshqx_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    14. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2025. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 2315-2333, December.
    15. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    17. repec:osf:metaar:b8uhe_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mandon, Pierre & Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye, 2023. "Has Chinese aid benefited recipient countries? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    19. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    20. Abel Brodeur & Nikolai Cook & Anthony Heyes, 2020. "Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3634-3660, November.
    21. Christopher Snyder & Ran Zhuo, 2018. "Sniff Tests as a Screen in the Publication Process: Throwing out the Wheat with the Chaff," NBER Working Papers 25058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzík, 2025. "Borrower‐based macroprudential measures and credit growth: How biased is the existing literature?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 66-102, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001932. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.