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The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications

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  • Samya Beidas-Strom
  • Weicheng Lian
  • Ashwaq Maseeh

Abstract

This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Samya Beidas-Strom & Weicheng Lian & Ashwaq Maseeh, 2009. "The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2009/288, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    2. Rshood M. Al-Khraif & Abdullah N. Al-Mutairi & Khaled O. Alradihan & Asharaf Abdul Salam, 2018. "Retiree home ownership in Saudi Arabia: the role of geographic, demographic, social and economic variables," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 169-185, June.
    3. Mr. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 2011/195, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alhawarin, Ibrahim & Assaad, Ragui & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2021. "Migration shocks and housing: Short-run impact of the Syrian refugee crisis in Jordan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Ibrahim Al Hawarin & Ragui Assaad & Ahmed Elsayed, 2018. "Migration Shocks and Housing: Evidence from the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan," Working Papers 1213, Economic Research Forum, revised 28 Jun 2018.
    6. Antje Hildebrandt & Duy T. Huynh-Olesen & Katharina Steiner & Karin Wagner, 2013. "Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-76.
    7. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2017. "The Role of Housing Markets in the Timing of Marriage in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," Working Papers 1081, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Oct 2017.
    8. Ahmed Elsayed, 2018. "Housing and Living Conditions In Jordan—2010-2016," Working Papers 1195, Economic Research Forum, revised 17 May 2018.
    9. Alhawarin, Ibrahim & Assaad, Ragui & Elsayed, Ahmed, 2020. "Migration Shocks and Housing: Short-Run Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan," IZA Discussion Papers 13969, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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