IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Land and House Price Measurement in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yongheng Deng
  • Joseph Gyourko
  • Jing Wu

Abstract

We provide the first multi-city, constant quality land price index for 35 major markets in China. While there is meaningful heterogeneity in land price growth across cities, on average the last nine years have seen land values skyrocket in many markets, not just those on or near the coast. The typical market has experienced double-digit compound average annual growth in real, constant-quality land values. The 2009-2010 stimulus period typically saw large surges in prices. Three notable characteristics about the land value appreciation series are their strong mean reversion at annual frequencies, the strong common factor in their movement, and their very high volatility. Quantities, not just prices, have been sharply increasing in recent years. The typical amount of space supplied via land auctions in our 35 city sample has doubled since 2008. Some local political economy traits such as the time the local Chinese Communist Party leader has been in office are correlated with land supply volume. We also investigate the quality of the two most prominent house price indexes in China, and conclude that a traditional hedonic index more accurately reflects how house prices have changed over time in eight major markets in China. Repeat sales indexes have become standard in many countries, but they are not as useful in emerging markets such as China because the bulk of the housing stock is relatively new and has not traded multiple times. A hedonic index shows much higher house price growth over time that do officially published series for the eight markets examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and House Price Measurement in China," NBER Working Papers 18403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18403
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hongbin Cai & J. Vernon Henderson & Qinghua Zhang, 2013. "China's land market auctions: evidence of corruption?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 488-521, September.
    2. Ching, Stephen & Fu, Yuming, 2003. "Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 695-720, October.
    3. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    4. Joseph T.L. Ooi & C.F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2006. "Price Formation Under Small Numbers Competition: Evidence from Land Auctions in Singapore," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 51-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Why China’s growing cities do not threaten farmland
      by John Gibson in East Asia Forum on 2015-01-16 05:00:27

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    2. Munnings, Clayton & Morgenstern, Richard D. & Wang, Zhongmin & Liu, Xu, 2016. "Assessing the design of three carbon trading pilot programs in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 688-699.
    3. Chao Li & John Gibson, 2013. "Spatial Price Differences and Inequality in China: Housing Market Evidence," Working Papers in Economics 13/06, University of Waikato.
    4. Li, Lixing & Wu, Xiaoyu, 2014. "Housing price and entrepreneurship in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 436-449.
    5. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    7. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:6:p:691-705 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    9. Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "Les dangers de la bulle immobilière chinoise," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 77-96.
    10. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng, 2015. "Intercity Information Diffusion and Price Discovery in Housing Markets: Evidence from Google Searches," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 289-306, April.
    11. Qin, Yu & Zhu, Hongjia & Zhu, Rong, 2016. "Changes in the distribution of land prices in urban China during 2007–2012," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-90.
    12. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2015. "Real estate collateral value and investment: The case of China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 43-53.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.