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Money, housing, and inflation in China

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  • Zhang, Chengsi

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship among money, housing, and consumer price inflation in China since 1998. We use a standard multivariate dynamic model and show that when goods prices are sticky, monetary growth is initially transmitted to the real economy via changes in house prices; the changes in house prices are then transmitted to consumer price inflation in China. The results indicate that the recent real estate market boom, mainly driven by excessive monetary growth, dominates the underlying pattern of inflation behavior in China. Relevant policy implications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chengsi, 2013. "Money, housing, and inflation in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 75-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:75-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Howden & Jason XingBin Li, 2015. "An Austrian Analysis of China's Unsustainable Boom," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 443-452, October.
    2. He, Ling-Yun & Wen, Xing-Chun, 2017. "Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 305-312.
    3. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Shu-hen Chiang, 2014. "Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications: Comovement or Ripple Effect," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 103-120, November.
    5. Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    6. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. repec:eee:chieco:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:205-222 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Liang, Wenquan & Lu, Ming & Zhang, Hang, 2016. "Housing prices raise wages: Estimating the unexpected effects of land supply regulation in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 70-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Money; Real estate; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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