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News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Birol Kanik

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Wei Xiao

    (State University of New York at Binghamton)

Abstract

We explore the possibility that a housing market boombust cycle may arise when public beliefs are driven by news shocks. News, imperfect and noisy by nature, may generate expectations that are overly optimistic or pessimistic. Overoptimism easily leads to excessive accumulation of housing assets and creates a housing boom that is not based on fundamentals. When the news is found false or inaccurate, investors revert their actions, and a downturn in the housing market follows. By altering agents’ net worth conditions, a housing cycle can have significant repercussions in the aggregate economy. In this paper, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model that can give rise to a news-driven housing boom-bust cycle, and consider how monetary policies should respond to it.

Suggested Citation

  • Birol Kanik & Wei Xiao, 2014. "News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 249-298, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2014:q:4:a:8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
    3. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-06-18 14:08:07

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
    2. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    4. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Damdinjav, Davaasukh, 2019. "The policy-driven boom and bust in the housing market: Evidence from Mongolia," MPRA Paper 102933, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    6. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    8. Birol Kanik, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Housing Prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(1), pages 13-36.
    9. Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2015. "Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconomic Interdependence," 2015 Papers poz71, Job Market Papers.
    10. Koltsova Anna A. & Starobinskaya Nadegda M. & Chekmarev Oleg P., 2018. "Art Market: Distinctive Features And Value Of Art Objects," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 4, December.
    11. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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