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Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices

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  • Michael J. Brennan
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

This paper contrasts three different arbitrage‐based models for the pricing of GNMA securities, and analyzes the effect of different assumptions about the call policy pursued by the issuers of the underlying mortgages. Both the nature of the interest‐rate uncertainty captured by the model and the assumed call policy have a major effect on the yield differentials predicted between GNMA securities and Treasury Bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1985. "Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-228, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:13:y:1985:i:3:p:209-228
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Longstaff, Francis A., 2002. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt19k7479t, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Groh, Alexander P., 2004. "Risikoadjustierte Performance von Private Equity-Investitionen," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 21382, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Andrew H. Chen & David C. Ling, 1989. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Stochastic Interest Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 278-299, September.
    6. Robert O. Edmister & Gay B. Hatfield, 1995. "The Significance of Porfolio Lenders to Real Estate Brokers," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(1), pages 57-68.
    7. Nicola Fusari & Wei Li & Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Cohort‐Based Trading in MBS Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3249-3287, December.
    8. Leon G. Shilton & James R. Webb, 1989. "Commercial Loan Underwriting and Option Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12.
    9. Nai Jia Lee, 2003. "Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 75-101.
    10. Congjin Zhou & Guojing Wang & Yinghui Dong & Pin Wang, 2024. "The Valuation at Origination of Mortgages with Full Prepayment and Default Risks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Lu Fang, 2020. "Mortgage Pricing Implications of Prepayment: Separating Pecuniary and Non-pecuniary Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 239-269, April.
    12. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
    13. Leon G. Shilton & John Teall, 1994. "Option-Based Prediction of Commercial Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 219-236.
    14. Xingang Wen & Peter M. Kort & Dolf Talman, 2017. "Volume flexibility and capacity investment: a real options approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(12), pages 1633-1646, December.
    15. Harding, John P., 2000. "Mortgage Valuation with Optimal Intertemporal Refinancing Strategies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 233-266, December.
    16. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    17. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    18. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy, 2010. "Risky mortgages and mortgage default premiums," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec20.
    19. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    20. (David) Ho, Kim Hin & Su, Huiyong, 2006. "Structural prepayment risk behavior of the underlying mortgages for residential mortgage life insurance in a developing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 257-278, September.
    21. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September.
    22. Che-Chun Lin & Ting-Heng Chu & Larry J. Prather & Perry Wang, 2005. "Mortgage Curtailment and Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 95-109.
    23. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    24. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, June.

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