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A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six central and eastern european countries

  • Irène Andreou
  • Gilles Dufrénot
  • Alain Sand-Zantman
  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2007-27.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0727
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  1. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
  2. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  5. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
  7. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? a Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, May.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  14. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  16. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  17. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  18. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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