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Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Irène Andreou

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this work we use a panel probit model to analyze the sources of financial vulnerability in four Central and Eastern European countries. The incontestable advantages of applying this method, associated with some elements of the non-parametric approach applied during the initial selection of the used indicators, allow us to accomplish, rather well, this objective.Indeed, the model performs considerably well in the sample and the whole approach can provide useful and supportive instruments for the study of financial vulnerabilities in transition economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Irène Andreou & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Post-Print halshs-00374148, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00374148
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00374148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Andreou, Irène & Dufrénot, Gilles, 2009. "A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 87-115.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Adopting the Euro in Central Europe; Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration," IMF Occasional Papers 234, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    7. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," NBER Working Papers 12363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Dr. Brunilda Duraj, 2010. "The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 33-48, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Vulnerability; Panel Probit Model; CEECs;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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