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Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information

  • Patrick Bajari
  • Han Hong
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Recently, empirical industrial organization economists have proposed estimators for dynamic games of incomplete information. In these models, agents choose from a finite number actions and maximize expected discounted utility in a Markov perfect equilibrium. Previous econometric methods estimate the probability distribution of agents%u2019 actions in a first stage. In a second step, a finite vector of parameters of the period return function are estimated. In this paper, we develop semiparametric estimators for dynamic games allowing for continuous state variables and a nonparametric first stage. The estimates of the structural parameters are T1/2 consistent (where T is the sample size) and asymptotically normal even though the first stage is estimated nonparametrically. We also propose sufficient conditions for identification of the model.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0320.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0320
Note: TWP
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  1. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2003. "Quantifying Equilibrium Network Externalities in the ACH Banking Industry," Working Papers 03-06, NET Institute, revised Sep 2003.
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  8. Davis, Peter, 2006. "Estimation of quantity games in the presence of indivisibilities and heterogeneous firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 187-214, September.
  9. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
  10. James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Efficient Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 809-37, July.
  12. Pesendorfer, Martin & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 3965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
  14. Patrick Bajari & John Krainer, 2004. "An Empirical Model of Stock Analysts' Recommendations: Market Fundamentals, Conflicts of Interest, and Peer Effects," NBER Working Papers 10665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
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