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Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand

Listed author(s):
  • Neil R. Ericsson
  • Steven B. Kamin

This paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics--two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection--using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson's (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correction model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a "ratchet" variable that captures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2008/943/ifdp943.pdf
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 943.

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Date of creation: 2008
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:943
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  1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2007. "International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 297-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  3. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  4. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
  5. Jared Enzler & Lewis Johnson & John Paulus, 1976. "Some Problems of Money Demand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 261-282.
  6. Ahumada, Hildegart, 1992. "A dynamic model of the demand for currency: Argentina 1977-1988," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 335-361, June.
  7. Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May.
  8. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
  9. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, 03.
  10. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
  11. Melnick, Rafi, 1990. "The Demand for Money in Argentina 1978-1987: Before and after the Austral Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(4), pages 427-434, October.
  12. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Contructive data mining: modeling consumers' expenditure in Venezuela," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 226-240.
  13. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
  14. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
  15. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-255, May.
  16. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Prestwich, Kevin M, 1998. " The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 289-324, March.
  17. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  18. Helkie, William L. & Howard, David H., 1994. "External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-393, August.
  19. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Atkinson, A. C., 1981. "Likelihood ratios, posterior odds and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-20, May.
  21. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression estimator," CREATES Research Papers 2008-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  22. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  24. David H. Howard, 1987. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country," International Finance Discussion Papers 314, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  26. Kevin D Hoover & Selva Demiralp & Stephen J Perez, 2010. "Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2," Working Papers 10-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Neil R. Ericsson, 2004. "The ET interview: professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
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