Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia
Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices and non-food prices. Our main finding is that, in the long run, domestic food and non-food prices are determined by the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short to medium run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth affects food price inflation in the short run, though excess money supply does not seem to drive inflation in the long run. Our results suggest a challenging time ahead for Ethiopia, with the need for a multipronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account the cereal sector, as food staple growth is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.
|Date of creation:||23 Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
- Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy; Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Deaton, A., 1999.
"Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica,"
186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Njuguna S. Ndung'u & Dick Durevall, 1999.
"A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya, 1974-1996,"
IMF Working Papers
99/97, International Monetary Fund.
- Durevall, Dick & Ndung'u, Njuguna S., 1998. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996," Working Papers in Economics 7, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
- Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
- Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003.
"Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search,"
9727, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008.
"Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
- Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005.
"Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
- Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/130, International Monetary Fund.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002.
"Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
- Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008.
"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices,"
in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009.
"The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
- Klugman, Jeni & Loening, Josef, 2007. "Welfare Impacts of Food Price Inflation in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 24892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
- By Gunnar Jonsson, 2001. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 2.
- NG, Serena & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997.
"Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices,"
Cahiers de recherche
9709, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strom, Steinar, 1999. "Labour Supply in Italy: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Household Decisions, with Taxes and Quantity Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 403-22, July-Aug..
- Rania A. Al-Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2007.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt,"
IMF Working Papers
07/285, International Monetary Fund.
- Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001.
"The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited,"
06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan; Money or Wheat?," IMF Working Papers 06/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Lennart Flood & Roger Wahlberg & Elina Pylkkänen, 2007. "From Welfare to Work: Evaluating a Tax and Benefit Reform Targeted at Single Mothers in Sweden," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(3), pages 443-471, 09.
- Ulimwengu, John M. & Workneh, Sindu & Paulos, Zelekawork, 2009. "Impact of soaring food price in Ethiopia: Does location matter?," IFPRI discussion papers 846, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
- Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
- Theresa Osborne, 2004. "Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian GrainMarket," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 133-164, 01.
- Stephens, Emma C. & Mabaya, Edward T., 2008. "Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6538, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 08/189, International Monetary Fund.
- Kindie Getnet & Wim Verbeke & Jacques Viaene, 2005. "Modeling spatial price transmission in the grain markets of Ethiopia with an application of ARDL approach to white teff," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 491-502, November.
- Rodolphe Blavy, 2004. "Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea," IMF Working Papers 04/223, International Monetary Fund.
- Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
- von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tanku, Altin, 2006. "Black market exchange rate, currency substitution and the demand for money in LDCs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-263, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.