IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4969.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Loening, Josef L.
  • Durevall, Dick
  • Birru, Yohannes A.

Abstract

Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production, which is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/06/18/000158349_20090618133717/Rendered/PDF/WPS4969.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, pages 32-82.
    2. Ulimwengu, John M. & Workneh, Sindu & Paulos, Zelekawork, 2009. "Impact of soaring food price in Ethiopia: Does location matter?," IFPRI discussion papers 846, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    4. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy; Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/115, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
    6. Klugman, Jeni & Loening, Josef, 2007. "Welfare Impacts of Food Price Inflation in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 24892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    8. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, pages 213-234..
    9. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    10. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
    11. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
    12. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), pages 729-746.
    13. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
    14. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740, June.
    15. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    16. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2005. "Designing Optimal Taxes With a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," Public Economics 0510013, EconWPA.
    17. Lennart Flood & Roger Wahlberg & Elina Pylkkänen, 2007. "From Welfare to Work: Evaluating a Tax and Benefit Reform Targeted at Single Mothers in Sweden," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(3), pages 443-471, September.
    18. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
    19. Aaberge, Rolf & Flood, Lennart, 2008. "Evaluation of an In-Work Tax Credit Reform in Sweden: Effects on Labor Supply and Welfare Participation of Single Mothers," IZA Discussion Papers 3736, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    20. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
    21. Kenji Moriyama, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 08/189, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    23. Stephens, Emma C. & Mabaya, Edward T., 2008. "Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6538, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    24. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Recent Inflationary Trends in World Commodities Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/130, International Monetary Fund.
    25. von Braun, Joachim, 2007. "The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions," Food policy reports 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    26. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-659, December.
    28. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strom, Steinar, 1999. "Labour Supply in Italy: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Household Decisions, with Taxes and Quantity Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 403-422, July-Aug..
    30. Bigsten, Arne & Shimeles, Abebe, 2008. "Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994-2004," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1559-1584, September.
    31. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
    32. Emma C. Stephens & Edward Mabaya & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Christopher B. Barrett, 2012. "Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 453-469, June.
    33. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    34. By Gunnar Jonsson, 2001. "Inflation, Money Demand, and Purchasing Power Parity in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 1-2.
    35. Durevall, Dick & Ndung'u, Njuguna S., 1998. "A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996," Working Papers in Economics 7, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    36. Kindie Getnet & Wim Verbeke & Jacques Viaene, 2005. "Modeling spatial price transmission in the grain markets of Ethiopia with an application of ARDL approach to white teff," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 491-502, November.
    37. Jemma Dridi & Kimberly Zieschang, 2004. "Export and Import Price Indices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 1-9.
    38. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    39. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tanku, Altin, 2006. "Black market exchange rate, currency substitution and the demand for money in LDCs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-263, October.
    40. Theresa Osborne, 2004. "Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian Grain Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 133-164.
    41. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    43. Rodolphe Blavy, 2004. "Inflation and Monetary Pass-Through in Guinea," IMF Working Papers 04/223, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Minot, Nicholas, 2011. "Transmission of world food price changes to markets in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1059, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Minten, Bart & Stifel, David & Tamru, Seneshaw, 2012. "Structural Transformation in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cereal Markets:," ESSP research note 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Tefera, Nigussie, 2012. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126698, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. repec:asi:ajoerj:2018:p:13-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef, 2009. "Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts," MPRA Paper 25899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Maes, Kenneth C. & Hadley, Craig & Tesfaye, Fikru & Shifferaw, Selamawit, 2010. "Food insecurity and mental health: Surprising trends among community health volunteers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia during the 2008 food crisis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(9), pages 1450-1457, May.
    7. Chen, Li-Ju & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong & Ye, Chusheng, 2014. "The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 439-447.
    8. Christopher Adam & David Kwimbere & Wilfred Mbowe & Stephen O’Connell, 2012. "Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania," Working Paper Series 441, African Development Bank.
    9. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 11/57, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Josef Loening & Masato Higashi, 2011. "Decomposing terms of trade fluctuations in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1219-1224.
    11. Hadley, Craig & Stevenson, Edward Geoffrey Jedediah & Tadesse, Yemesrach & Belachew, Tefera, 2012. "Rapidly rising food prices and the experience of food insecurity in urban Ethiopia: Impacts on health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(12), pages 2412-2419.
    12. Maes, Kenneth & Kalofonos, Ippolytos, 2013. "Becoming and remaining community health workers: Perspectives from Ethiopia and Mozambique," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 52-59.
    13. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    14. Admassie, Assefa, 2013. "The Political Economy of Food Price: the Case of Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series 001, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
    16. Alem, Yonas & Köhlin, Gunnar & Stage, Jesper, 2014. "The Persistence of Subjective Poverty in Urban Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 51-61.
    17. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    18. Yami, Mesay & Meyer, Ferdi & Hassan, Rashid, 2016. "Testing price leadership role in major regional maize markets in Ethiopia," 2016 AAAE Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 249439, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    19. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 89-106.
    20. Baltzer, Kenneth, 2013. "International to Domestic Price Transmission in Fourteen Developing Countries During the 2007-08 Food Crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series 031, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Mezgebo, Taddese, 2009. "A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price," MPRA Paper 18663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Mehare, Abule & Edriss, Abdi K., 2012. "Evaluation of Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on Export of Ethiopia’s Agricultural Product: Case of Oilseeds," Research Theses 157504, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    23. Stephen A. O'Connell, 2011. "Towards a Rule-based Approach to Monetary Policy Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(suppl_2), pages -66, May.
    24. Alem, Yonas & Söderbom, Måns, 2012. "Household-Level Consumption in Urban Ethiopia: The Effects of a Large Food Price Shock," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 146-162.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markets and Market Access; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Food&Beverage Industry; Emerging Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.