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International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina

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  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez

    (University of Michigan and NBER)

  • Linda L. Tesar

    (University of Michigan and NBER)

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the major economic events in Argentina from the adoption of the convertibility plan in 1991 to the collapse of the exchange rate regime in 2001. We focus on the relationship between the credibility of the currency board and capital flows, and the inescapable link between fiscal and monetary policy. Argentina inadvertently entered into a vicious circle with financial markets – one in which it felt compelled to raise the exit costs from the currency board in order to maintain the regime’s credibility. As exit costs mounted, financial markets became increasingly concerned about the dire implications of a devaluation, which in turn, compelled the government to raise exit costs further. In the late 1990s, when Argentina went into recession, it required some sort of stimulus –either a loosening of monetary policy (i.e. a devaluation) or fiscal stimulus. But either way spelled disaster. The added pressure of capital outflow, first by international investors and then the withdrawal of deposits from the Argentine banking system, eventually tipped the scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2004. "International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina," Working Papers 532, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Takatoshi ITO, 2007. "Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 16-49, June.
    6. Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
    7. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Rohit, Allena, 2017. "Capital inflow-terms of trade ‘nexus’: Does it lead to financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 18-29.
    8. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Allena Rohit, 2016. "A Mathematical Model of Foreign Capital Inflow," Papers 1603.02438, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    9. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Hassler, Olivier, 2005. "The impact of the 2001 financial crisis and the economic policy responses on the Argentine mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 242-270, September.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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