IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/duk/dukeec/10-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin D Hoover
  • Selva Demiralp
  • Stephen J Perez

Abstract

The M2 monetary aggregate is monitored by the Federal Reserve, using a broad brush theoretical analysis and an informal empirical analysis. This paper illustrates empirical identification of an eleven-variable system, in which M2 and the factors that the Fed regards as causes and effects are captured in a vector autogregression. Taking account of cointegration, the methodology combines recent developments in graph-theoretical causal search algorithms with a general-to-specific search algorithm to identify a fully specified structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The SVAR is used to examine the causes and effects of M2 in a variety of ways. We conclude that, while the Fed has rightly identified a number of special factors that influence M2 and while M2 detectably affects other important variables, there is 1) little support for the core quantity-theoretic approach to M2 used by the Fed; and 2) M2 is a trivial linkage in the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to real output and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin D Hoover & Selva Demiralp & Stephen J Perez, 2010. "Empirical Identification of the Vector Autoregression: The Causes and Effects of U.S. M2," Working Papers 10-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1350021_code1070428.pdf?abstractid=1091249&mirid=1
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2011. "Effects of monetary policy on the $/£ exchange rate. Is there a 'delayed overshooting puzzle'?," Studies in Economics 1124, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    M2; monetary aggregates; causality; causal analysis; graph theory; monetary policy; quantity theory of money; PcGets; Autometrics; search algorithms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://econ.duke.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.