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Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simltaneous system and their defects in small samples

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  • Kiviet, Jan

Abstract

A variety of asymptotically valid tests for orthogonality, serial correlation, predictive failure, and of coefficient restrictions are presented, and their rejection probabilities are assessed in linear structural models with lagged-dependent and (possibly) jointly dependent variables by Monte Carlo methods. For all test procedures the small-sample distribution under the null usually deviates substantially from the asymptotic distribution; this impedes their use in a reliable model selection strategy for econometric time-series analysis. Despite the harassing dependence of type I errors on factors generally unknown to the practitioner, inconsistencies originating from specification errors or from disregarded simultaneity may be detected by particular tests in particular situations. From this study some clues emerge on how to interpret (in)significant values of the various test statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiviet, Jan, 1984. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simltaneous system and their defects in small samples," University of Amsterdam, Actuarial Science and Econometrics Archive 293072, University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:amstas:293072
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.293072
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Faini & Jaime De Melo & Abdelhak Senhadji & Julie Stanton, 2015. "Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs: A Statistical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 5, pages 125-135, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 1987. "Monte Carlo methodology and the finite sample properties of statistics for testing nested and non-nested hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 1987.
    4. Kiviet, Jan F. & Pleus, Milan, 2017. "The performance of tests on endogeneity of subsets of explanatory variables scanned by simulation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Daveri, Francesco & Faini, Riccardo, 1999. "Where Do Migrants Go?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 595-622, October.
    6. Ronald Cotterill & William Putsis, 2000. "Market Share and Price Setting Behavior for Private Labels and National Brands," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 17(1), pages 17-39, August.
    7. Klinedinst, Mark, 1991. "Are CEO's paid their marginal product? An empirical analysis of executive compensation and corporate performance," MPRA Paper 36650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cable, J.R. & Wilson, N., 1988. "Profit-Sharing And Productivity: An Analysis Of Uk Engineering Firms," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 300, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
    10. Cable, John R. & Wilson, Nicholas, 1988. "Profit-Sharing And Productivity: An Analysis Of Uk Engineering Firms," Economic Research Papers 268335, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    11. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    12. Klinedinst, Mark, 1991. "Inside the black box: compensation structures of efficient Yugoslavian firms," MPRA Paper 36305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. J. Thornton & P. Molyneux, 1996. "Unanticipated income and consumption in ASEAN countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 247-249.
    14. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.

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