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Growth-oriented adjustment programs: A statistical analysis

  • Faini, Riccardo
  • De Melo, Jaime
  • Senhadji, Abdelhak
  • Stanton, Julie

This paper gives a statistical analysis of economic performance under International Monetary Fund (IMF) — World Bank (WB) growth-oriented adjustment programs, The evaluation is based on a sample of 93 countries and makes a comparison of the average values of economic indicators during 1982–86 with the corresponding values during 1978–81. The methodology controls for the external environment and for initial conditions. The paper finds no evidence of a statistically better (or worse) growth performance for loan recipient countries.The paper then examines the investment-output relationship for a group of 14 countries that received a large number of growth-oriented adjustment loans. An estimate is provided of the foregone growth because of lower aggregate investment !'luring the period of adjustment. The paper concludes that the desired signs of a sustainable recovery through higher investment were not evident, at least through 1986.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 19 (1991)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 957-967

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:19:y:1991:i:8:p:957-967
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. Mario I. Blejer & Mohsin S. Khan, 1984. "Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries (Politique des pouvoirs publics et investissement privé dans les pays en développement) (Política estatal e inversión privada en lo," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(2), pages 379-403, June.
  2. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  3. Jan F. Kiviet, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 241-261.
  4. Sachs, J. & Huizinga, H.P., 1987. "U.S. commercial banks and the developing-country debt crisis," Other publications TiSEM ada14007-7229-4f6d-a016-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  5. Dadkhah, Kamran M & Zahedi, Fatemeh, 1986. "Simultaneous Estimation of Production Functions and Capital Stocks for Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 443-51, August.
  6. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "Quantitative appraisal of adjustment lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 79, The World Bank.
  7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-850.
  8. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
  9. Buffie, Edward F., 1984. "The macroeconomics of trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 121-137, August.
  10. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097, June.
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
  12. Kiviet, Jan F., 1985. "Model selection test procedures in a single linear equation of a dynamic simultaneous system and their defects in small samples," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 327-362, June.
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