Growth-oriented adjustment programs: A statistical analysis
This paper gives a statistical analysis of economic performance under International Monetary Fund (IMF) — World Bank (WB) growth-oriented adjustment programs, The evaluation is based on a sample of 93 countries and makes a comparison of the average values of economic indicators during 1982–86 with the corresponding values during 1978–81. The methodology controls for the external environment and for initial conditions. The paper finds no evidence of a statistically better (or worse) growth performance for loan recipient countries.The paper then examines the investment-output relationship for a group of 14 countries that received a large number of growth-oriented adjustment loans. An estimate is provided of the foregone growth because of lower aggregate investment !'luring the period of adjustment. The paper concludes that the desired signs of a sustainable recovery through higher investment were not evident, at least through 1986.
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- Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097, April.
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- Balassa, Bela, 1988. "Quantitative appraisal of adjustment lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 79, The World Bank.
- Jan F. Kiviet, 1986. "On the Rigour of Some Misspecification Tests for Modelling Dynamic Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 241-261. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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