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Does devaluation hurt private investment? The Indonesian case

  • Chhibber, Ajay
  • Shafik, Nemat
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    Devaluation affects investment because of its effect on the real supply price of capital goods; the real price of imported inputs, w???????????????hich together with capital goods are used to produce output; the real product wage and thereby profitability and investment; real income, which affects the demand for domestically produced goods; and nominal and real interest rates, which in turn affect investment. This paper discusses the channels between devaluation and private investment and sets out the error correction growth-investment model. It also describes the trends in Indonesia's key macroeconomic variables and policy changes that have driven investment behavior. The estimates of the model are presented with a set of simulations that look at the short- versus long-run implications of devaluation on private investment.

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    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 418.

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    Date of creation: 31 May 1990
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:418
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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1992. "Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Survey," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 95-114, January.
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    10. Buffie, Edward F, 1986. "Devaluation and Imported Inputs: The Large Economy Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 123-40, February.
    11. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
    12. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
    13. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
    14. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
    15. Jenkinson, T J, 1986. "Testing Neo-Classical Theories of Labour Demand: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 241-51, August.
    16. Currie, David A, 1981. "Some Long Run Features of Dynamic Time Series Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 704-15, September.
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