Modeling investment behavior in developing countries : an application to Egypt
The economic literature on investment has been characterized by considerable controversy, even by the standards of economists. A number of different, often overlapping, models of investment determination have been hypothesized and the empirical evidence has done little to clarify which, if any, are accurate representations of the way in which capital formation occurs in the economy. This paper suggests some methodological innovations in modelling aggregate investment behavior. A theoretical framework for analyzing investment decisions that takes into account some of the structural features of a developing economy is presented. Starting from the firm's optimization problem, an aggregate investment function is derived that reflects the results of a survey of decision-making in fifty private sector firms in Egypt. The model is then tested at the macroeconomic level using new econometric techniques that have emerged in the recent literature on stationarity testing and cointegration. The relationship between investment and an array of government policies is highlighted in the econometric analysis. The conclusions, both methodological and empirical, are also presented.
|Date of creation:||30 Jun 1990|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Salmon, Mark H, 1982.
"Error Correction Mechanisms,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 615-29, September.
- Salmon, Mark, 1982. "Error Correction Mechanisms," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 199, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
- Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-29, May.
- Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
- Dailami, Mansoor, 1989. "Policy changes that encourage private business investment in Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 266, The World Bank.
- Malinvaud, Edmond, 1982. "Wages and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 1-12, March.
- Anderson, G J, 1981. "A New Approach to the Empirical Investigation of Investment Expenditures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 88-103, March.
- Behrman, Jere R, 1972. "Sectoral Investment Determination in a Developing Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 825-41, December.
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Chhibber, Ajay & Shafik, Nemat, 1990. "Does devaluation hurt private investment? The Indonesian case," Policy Research Working Paper Series 418, The World Bank.
- Fazzari, Steven M & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Investment, Financing Decisions, and Tax Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 200-205, May.
- Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
- Bilsborrow, Richard E, 1977. "The Determinants of Fixed Investment by Manufacturing Firms in a Developing Country," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(3), pages 697-717, October.
- Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987.
"Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fry, Maxwell J., 1980. "Saving, investment, growth and the cost of financial repression," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 317-327, April.
- Bean, Charles R, 1981. "An Econometric Model of Manufacturing Investment in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 106-21, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- James G. Witte & Jr., 1963. "The Microfoundations of the Social Investment Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 441.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
- Balassa, Bela, 1988. "Public finance and economic development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 31, The World Bank.
- Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1989. "Private investment and macroeconomic adjustment : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 339, The World Bank.
- Jenkinson, T J, 1986. "Testing Neo-Classical Theories of Labour Demand: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 241-51, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.