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Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Fabrizio Casalin

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    (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, by focusing on Single Equation and VECM techniques commonly employed to test for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of interest rates (EHTS), it sheds light on the conditions - in terms of the di erent classes of stochastic processes of the spot and forward rates - that must hold for the EHTS to be valid. In doing so, the existing linkage between the two strands of literature is highlighted. Second, by using kalman lter and maximum likelihood, estimates of a permanent-transitory components model for spot and forward interest rates are carried out. The simple parametric model helps discern the relative contributions of both departures from rational expectation and time varying term premium to the invalidation of the EHTS. Departures from rational expectations turn out to have negligible impact on the rejection of the EHTS. Estimates of the time varying term premia for the short-end of the term structure spectrum are persistent and reasonable in magnitude, and exhibit sign uctuations.

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    File URL: http://dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper110.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 110.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: 2007
    Date of revision: 2007
    Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:110
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