IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1341.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?

Author

Listed:
  • Marjorie A. Flavin

Abstract

Almost all of the recent empirical tests of the rational expectations - permanent income hypothesis (RE-PIH) have rejected the hypothesis. The null hypothesis in this empirical literature typically consists of the joint hypothesis that 1) agents' expectations are formed rationally, 2) desired consumption is determined by permanent income, and 3) capital markets are"perfect" in the sense that agents can lend or borrow against expected future income at the same interest rate. This paper attempts to determine whether the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income can be attributed to a failure of the third component of the joint hypothesis -- the assumption of "perfect" capital markets -- as opposed to a failure of one or both of the first two assumptions. The paper examines, as a specific alternative to the PIH, a simple "Keynesian" consumption function in which the behavioral MPC out of transitory income is different from zero. Interpreting the unemployment rate as a proxy for the proportion of the population subject to liquidity constraints, the paper uses a generalized version of the econometric model in my earlier paper(1981) to conduct a specification test of the "Keynesian" consumption function. The finding that the estimate of the MPC out of transitory income is dramatically affected, in both magnitude and statistical significance, by the inclusion of the proxy for liquidity constraints suggests that liquidity constraints are an important part of the explanation of the observed excess sensitivity of consumption to current income.

Suggested Citation

  • Marjorie A. Flavin, 1984. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," NBER Working Papers 1341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1341
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1341.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Mervyn A. King, 1983. "The Economics of Saving," NBER Working Papers 1247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Blinder, Alan S, 1981. "Temporary Income Taxes and Consumer Spending," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(1), pages 26-53, February.
    4. Mervyn A. King & Louis Dicks-Mireaux, 1981. "Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Akerlof, George A & Main, Brian G M, 1980. "Unemployment Spells and Unemployment Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 885-893, December.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1981. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles: Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 0756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    8. Hausman, Jerry A, 1975. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Full Information Estimators for Linear and Certain Nonlinear Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(4), pages 727-738, July.
    9. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 895-916, October.
    10. King, M A & Dicks-Mireaux, L-D L, 1982. "Asset Holdings and the Life-Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 247-267, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1985. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, LiquidityConstraints, and the Payroll Tax," NBER Working Papers 1736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1987. "Finite Lifetimes, Borrowing Constraints, and Short-Run Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 2158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1984. "'Precautionary' Saving Revisited: Social Security, Individual Welfare, and the Capital Stock," NBER Working Papers 1430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Runli Xie, 2009. "Trade-Off Between Consumption Growth and Inequality: Theory and Evidence for Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Borrowing Restrictions and Wealth Constraints: Implications for Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.